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1* Free Play on under 160½
1 Dimer on Portland Fire vs Valkyries under 160½ -115
Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Pittsburgh Pirates +101
The Pittsburgh Pirates have the advantages on the mound and at the plate tonight over the Houston Astros and should not be underdogs as a result. The Pirates are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season with one of the most improved offenses in baseball. The Astros are missing nearly half their offense due to injury and scoring 4.4 runs per game this season.
The Pirates just scored a total of 25 runs in their 3-game sweep of the Twins last series. They should stay hot against Michael Burrows, who is 3-6 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 11 starts for the Astros this season while allowing 38 earned runs and 13 homers in 63 1/3 innings. Burrows is 1-2 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in five home starts. He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with the Astros having a 5.20 ERA this season.
Bubba Chandler has struggled, but he has been better than Burrows. He is 1-6 with a 5.02 ERA in 11 starts this season allowing just 7 homers in 52 innings. He has posted a 4.40 ERA in his six road starts. The Pirates rank in the top half of baseball with a 4.07 ERA as a bullpen. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Pirates Tuesday.
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Free Total Annihilator On Sun vs Dream over 159½ -110
1* Bet on Sun/Dream: over 157
1* Free Pick on Mariners -137
You can do a lot worse than go Over on a Nationals game. The Over is 38-20-3 in Washington's games this season. That is 65.5 percent!
I see that trend continuing here with the Marlins set for a bullpen game and Washington giving the ball to the egregious Miles Mikolas.
The Nationals have that perfect combination for being a great Over team. They lead the majors in runs with an excellent blend of power and speed. But their pitching is terrible and their fielding is the worst in the league.
Miami is expected to open with Lake Bachar. He hasn't pitched more than 2 1/3 innings in a game all season. The Nationals are averaging 5.5 runs during their last seven games.
Mikolas is 1-4 with a 5.72 ERA and only 32 strikeouts in 50 1/3 innings. The Nationals have a bottom 10 bullpen.
Ricky's 1* play on ARI.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- The Diamondbacks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Diamondbacks are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head to head meetings against the Dodgers.
- Michael Soroka is 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA in his last 5 starts.
Verdict: The value is on the home Underdog.
1* Free Wiseguy Play on Sun/Dream over 157 -110
*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*
3* on Sky
This is a FREE PLAY On the UNDER Jays/Braves.
The Jays went 2-2 in Baltimore over the weekend, while the Braves went 2-1 in Cincinnati.
Considering the form of these scheduled starters, I believe the UNDER is worth a "second look" on Tuesday night, as Kevin Gausman (4-3, 3.13 ERA), faces off against Bryce Elder (4-3, 2.50 ERA).
Gausman has been particular sharp of late, posting a 1.02 ERA and an 18:3 K:BB over his last three games.
This interleague opener has "duel" written all over it in my opinion.
Consider the UNDER.
Good luck, NP
Dave's Tuesday Free Play:
1* on Arizona Diamondbacks +108
The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Arizona Diamondbacks as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. The Diamondbacks are 11-4 in their last 15 games overall. They have the edge on the rubber over the Dodgers tonight. Mike Soroka is 7-2 with a 3.25 ERA in 11 starts this year, and 3-1 with a 1.57 ERA in 6 home starts. Eric Lauer is 2-5 with a 5.95 ERA in 9 games this year while yielding 12 HR in 42 1/3 innings. Lauer is 0-3 with a 6.06 ERA in 4 road games. Take Arizona.
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1* Free Pick on Aces/Sparks: under 175½
The Sparks lose the WNBA's leading scorer for this one.
Kelsey Plum is out with a leg sprain, taking 26.8 PPG and 35.2 minutes of usage with her.
She dropped 38 on Las Vegas in the previous meeting between these teams.
You can't pull that kind of production out of a lineup and expect the same total to hold.
The opposition case is the obvious one: these two combined for 183 and 196 points in their first two meetings, and both teams play fast.
Sparks pace sits at 98.1, Aces at 99.15.
Fair point.
But both of those games had Plum healthy and chucking.
The number that produced those totals is the same number on the board now, with the league's top scorer in street clothes.
That's the mispricing.
Los Angeles also turns it over on 20% of possessions.
Fewer shot attempts, less efficient offense, and now the primary creator is gone.
The offense funnels to Dearica Hamby (17 PPG) and Nneka Ogwumike (15.7 PPG) in the frontcourt, which slows the game down and pushes possessions into the post.
The Aces aren't full strength either.
Chennedy Carter (17.5 PPG) and Jewell Loyd are both day-to-day with leg issues, and Dana Evans is out.
Las Vegas can lean on A'ja Wilson (24.8 PPG) and Jackie Young, but the secondary scoring punch is compromised.
Two offenses with missing pieces, one of them missing a 26.8 PPG centerpiece.
The 175.5 number is stale.
I like the Under
1 Unit FREE PLAY on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)
The Yankees are scoring 5.2 runs per game while the Guardians are scoring 4.1 runs per game. The Yankees are 6-1 in their last seven games overall and they have scored a total of 47 runs in their last five games. Their best starter by far has been Cam Schlittler, and he gets the ball tonight. Schlittler is 7-2 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 12 starts this season giving up only 12 earned runs and 3 home runs in 72 innings with 81 strikeouts. Joey Cantillo is 4-2 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 12 starts for the Guardians this season. Cantillo gave up 7 earned runs and 2 home runs in 4 innings of a 8-1 loss to the Yankees in his only previous start against them. Give me the Yankees on the Run Line.
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1* Best Bet on Marlins/Nationals under 9 +100
No analysis provided.
1* Free Sharp Play on Royals +116
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our Tuesday Free Play. Kansas City snapped a six-game losing streak with a 9-2 win over Cincinnati on Monday as it opened the game with a first inning grand slam from Lane Thomas and looks to build off a solid start from Luinder Avila. Noah Cameron got off to an uneven start this season but has put together three straight solid outings, allowing just five runs over 17 innings and he has now gone six straight starts without allowing a home run after giving up five in his first four starts. Those came against the Yankees and White Sox, two of the top three home run hitting teams in baseball and while Cincinnati is up there, they are without team leader Elly De La Cruz. The Reds have dropped four of five and counter with Andrew Abbott who has definitely been on a roll with a 1.29 ERA over his last five starts to lower his overall ERA to 3.88 after a very rough start. He is pitching to a 4.96 xERA which is higher than that of Cameron. Play (917) Kansas City Royals
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R&R Totals FREE MLB Over-Under Tuesday 6-2-26
OVER 7 1/2 Oakland/Chicago Cubs (Jump/Taillon) Listed
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Aces vs Sparks
10 EST
5-Unit bet UNDER 176.5 points.
The folloiwng WNBA betting algorithm has compiled a 23-13 UNDER record good for 64% winning bets since 2013. The required situations are:
Bet the Under when it is priced at 170 or more points.
The road team is priced as a 4.5 or greater-point favorite.
The favorite allowed 76 ro more PPG in their previous season.
The favorite is coming off a double-digit win.
OVER 7.5
Cleveland and New York have value to the over. Cleveland sends out Joey Cantillo, who is a contact pitcher and going to struggle here in Yankee Stadium. Cantillo was knocked around a bit last time out against the Nationals and he’s going to be forced into pitching with a lot of traffic on the bases in this game. Cam Schlittler counters and while he’s been good all season, this Cleveland lineup loves to make pitchers work themselves. Expect them to take their walks and manufacture scoring chances in this game. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.
Tuesday FREE MLB O/U Play
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1* Free Play on Sun/Dream under 159½ -115
Tuesday's Free MLB Pick
PLAY ON: Pirates/Astros OVER 9
My selection is on Chicago over Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.
White Sox starter Davis Martin is in early contention for the A.L. Cy Young Award with a 2.31 FIP and 0.99 WHIP not to mention an 8-1 record. He's handled this current Twins lineup, holding them to 16 hits in 72 at-bats (.222) with a .645 OPS. Behind Martin is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a 2.08 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over the last week and has converted 14 saves while blowing only seven on the road. Also of note, the Twins rank 30th (last) in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Minnesota will hand the ball to Connor Prielipp. He's been lit up to the tune of 8-for-17 (.471) with a 1.056 OPS against current White Sox hitters. Prielipp brings awful form into this start having allowed 11 earned runs in just 8 1/3 innings of work over his last two outings. That includes a 15-2 loss against this same White Sox club. The Twins bullpen owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last week. Take Chicago (8*).
Marlins vs Nationals MLB Free Pick
The Angle(s): The Washington Nationals are 38–20–3 (65.5%) to the over this season, and that number balloons to 20–8–2 (71.4%) at home, highlighting how frequently games at Nationals Park have turned into higher-scoring affairs.
The matchup sets up for more of the same, with an inexperienced Lake Bachar (0–0, 3.77 ERA) expected to open what should effectively be a bullpen game for Miami, and Miles Mikolas (1–4, 5.72 ERA) carrying ugly season numbers and having been particularly hittable in his home outings. With those profiles on the mound and Washington’s strong over trend, this total looks a bit light.
The Bet: OVER (3%).
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Marc David Sports' Free Pick
We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line appears to be heavily influenced by Cardinals RHP Dustin May (3–6, 4.57) and his early struggles, but he has sharpened up lately and we think this is an overreaction. Over his last two starts, May has piled up 16 strikeouts while allowing just eight hits and two walks, showing that his swing-and-miss stuff is back.
Rangers RHP Nathan Eovaldi (5–6, 3.93 ERA) has shown flashes of brilliance, but he has also surrendered eight runs over his last two starts, raising fair concerns about his current form.
This is a FREE PLAY on the CARDINALS!
1% GOLD RUSH on Sky/Mystics: under 161½
Free Pick on Hurricanes -150
FREE PLAY on Aces/Sparks under 176
Recommended Bet: Huracán +115
PSP Data Driven 1* White Sox.
At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.
Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Chicago White Sox is 9-2 in its last 11 games against Minnesota. Minnesota is 1-5 in its last 6 games.
For my best free pick on the board here for Tuesday is in the NHL game 1 of the Stanley Cup. I am gonna ride with the Carolina Hurricanes on the ML. I think we will see a mountain of bettors flocking to Vegas making them a public dog here tonight. Vegas also won both previous head to head meetings this season which should farther drive bettors here towards the Golden Knights. Great story Vegas is but Carolina at home they are the best team in hockey and even at -150 this is a bargain.
Play on the Carolina Hurricanes ML rotation #12
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