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3* on Mandel Nallo
1* Free Play on Jai Herbert +155
1* Best Bet on Rockets/Lakers over 207½ -105
No analysis provided.
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Take LAFC/San Jose UNDER (7 p.m. EST, Sunday April 19) This is a major Western Conference clash between two title contenders and these have been the best two defensive sides in MLS this season (along with Seattle). They have allowed a combined four goals through 14 combined matches! Not only is this a big match for Western Conference status, but this is a great test for the Earthquake to show how solid they really are this season. Two seasons ago this was one of the worst sides in MLS but they rebuilt quickly and have a great squad this season. LAFC probably has the best chance to represent the west in the MLS Cup, so San Jose will want to play well here and we think they lean into their defense. These sides are behind the Vancouver Whitecaps in the Western Conference standings, and that team has an easy matchup Friday, so both sides here will want to keep pace. These matchups have generally been high scoring, but the Earthquake are a more focused defensive side this season and we think they will treat this like a playoff matchup and dig deep defensively.
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Houston at L.A. Lakers 8:30 ET
Lakers (+) over Rockets - Only one game separated these two with Los Angeles winning 53 and Houston 52. In the three meetings this year the Roakets won on Christmas day and the Lakers won the last two games played three days apart in Houston on March 16-18. Kevin Durant and LeBron James will show their Hall of Fame talents and with LA in a world of hurt they have become an underdog at home. Take the LAKERS!
Oh boy, Saturday night in Winnipeg is shaping up to be one of those fun, loud Canadian cards where the crowd gets rowdy early and the main event could actually deliver some drama. Headlining it is Mike Malott, the hometown hero on a three-fight win streak, taking on Gilbert “Durinho” Burns in a five-round welterweight scrap. On paper, Malott’s the big favorite, younger, coming off solid wins, fighting in front of his people. But if you’ve followed the division long enough, you know these exact setups have a habit of biting favorites in the ass when a crafty veteran like Burns smells blood at plus money.
Here’s the thing that keeps jumping out at me: over the last few years in welterweight main events and high-profile five-rounders, we’ve seen this quiet trend where battle-tested guys with legit grappling pedigrees hang around, survive the early storm, and start dictating things once the pace slows. Burns is basically the poster child for that. At 39 he’s on a tough four-fight skid, sure, and he’s taken some real shots lately, but the numbers still show a guy who averages over two takedowns per 15 minutes and has nine career submissions on his record. That’s not just fluff—that’s chain-wrestling and mat control that can wear even explosive fighters down when the rounds pile up.
Malott’s no joke. He’s put together wins with both power and decisions, and his finishing rate is impressive. But look closer at how some of these hometown prospects have fared when the spotlight gets bright and the fight goes long. His average fight time sits noticeably shorter than Burns’, and we’ve watched similar Canadian or rising local favorites get dragged into deep waters where experience and late-round IQ start to matter way more than the first-round pop. Burns has been in there with killers,former champs, top contenders, and he’s shown time and again he can mix striking pressure with grappling chains that force opponents to burn energy scrambling.
Another angle that’s paid off more than people remember: when veterans with elite BJJ step up as dogs in welterweight spots, especially against guys still building their resume at the highest level, the plus money has cashed enough times to notice. It’s not about age alone; it’s about that extra octagon time teaching you exactly when to slow things down, when to clinch, and when to turn a scramble into control. Malott brings a reach advantage and solid volume, but if Burns can force the kind of extended grappling exchanges he thrives in, we could see the kind of fatigue that’s shown up in other prospects’ longer fights.
Don’t get me wrong, the Winnipeg crowd is going to be electric, and Malott could come out firing and make this a short night. That’s always the risk with these spots. But if you zoom out on recent welterweight trends, the veteran dog with the grappling edge has been a live play way more often than the odds suggest, particularly when the favorite is still proving he can handle 25 minutes against someone who’s seen every look.
Bottom line, this is the kind of underdog I actually get excited about,not some random longshot, but a spot where the plus money feels earned because of the matchup dynamics and the way these fights tend to play out historically. Burns might not be the flashiest pick on the card, but for my money, he’s the most interesting one when the cage door shuts.
Like always, fights are chaos and anything can happen once they touch gloves. Should be a good one.
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.
The Rockets went on a tear down the stretch, playing some of their best basketball of the season winning nine of their last 10 games SU (6-4 ATS). They draw a favorable opening round matchup against the injury-depleted Lakers. Los Angeles did reel off three straight wins both SU and ATS to close out the regular season but the absence of Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves at the start of the postseason certainly dampens its hopes. The Rockets will undoubtedly have their guard up after they were swept in a two-game home set against the Lakers in mid-March. That came after Houston rolled to a 119-96 win here in Los Angeles on Christmas Day. I do think Houston is a team that's well-positioned to achieve playoff success as it has mastered the lost art of defense in today's NBA. The Rockets have held eight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals going back to March 13th. The Lakers check in having accomplished that feat just once in their last 10 games. Take Houston (8*).
AAA Sports' Selection: San Diego Padres (ML).
San Diego will start German Marquez -- hasn't pitched great, but still has been winning so far as a Padre.
Even though he lost the start last season, he pitched really well against LAA, going seven innings and allowing just two runs.
The Padres are a much better team that Colorado too, so he gets a lot more help.
Los Angeles will start Yusei Kikuchi -- has been much worse than Marquez, with a 0-2 record + 7.50 earned run average so far.
The Angels have hit the ball really well. But, it's not sustainable considering how similar the squad is from last year.
We're on SDP.