Free CFB Picks

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Cincinnati +7

The Cincinnati Bearcats are flying under the radar this season after losing QB Sorsby to Texas Tech.  Scott Satterfield is fighting for his job and the Bearcats are responding thus far with an impressive 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.

After beating Boston College 34-15 as 7-point favorites and Western Carolina 62-10 as 36.5-point favorites, the Bearcats suffered a bit of a letdown leading into Big 12 play.  They only beat Miami Ohio 35-31 as 15.5-point favorites on a neutral.  That's also a sneaky rivalry game that Miami gets up for every year.

The Bearcats proved they were for real with a 31-26 upset win as 6-point home dogs against Kansas State in their Big 12 opener last week.  There was nothing fluky about that win as the Bearcats put up 8.5 yards per play and rushed for 271 yards on the Wildcats.  They held K-State to 5.6 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.9 yards per play.  That's a K-State team that beat Washington State 34-7.

Arizona just played Washington State last week and was life and death in a 34-24 road victory as 10.5-point favorites.  The Wildcats fell to 0-4 ATS as they have been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They failed to cover against Northern Arizona and Northern Illinois, and they lost 28-17 at BYU as 6.5-point dogs.

The Wildcats have been without their best WR in Gio Richardson since the BYU game and he is questionable to return this week.  They have cluster injuries at TE and will be without Cole Rusk.  They also have cluster injuries at LB and safety defensively.  

That will make it difficult to contain this impressive Cincinnati rushing attack, which has produced 270 rushing yards per game and 6.5 per carry.  QB JC French is completing 74.5% of his passes with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt.  He is also proving to be a dual-threat with 164 rushing yards and 4 TD on the ground.

This line should be much closer to 3 than 7, so getting a full TD with the Bearcats is great value this week.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has absolutely CRUSHED the books over the past 8-plus years! He is riding a 7202-6277 Run L3309 Days on all premium plays that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $330,920! He was the No. 6 Ranked Overall Capper in 2022 as well as the No. 8 Ranked Overall Capper in 2023! He finished as the No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper in 2024 with his $1,000/game players up $193,930 since January 1st, 2022!

No. 3 Ranked College Football Capper All-Time! Jack has delivered SEVEN Top-7 CFB Finishes L14 Years (#1 2024, #2 2012, #3 2018, #3 2014, #5 2016, #6 2020, #7 2017) to really put a beating on the books on the NCAA gridiron! He is riding a 1243-1037 CFB Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $107,300! He finished as the No. 1 Ranked CFB Capper in 2024-25!

Jack is off to a 32-21 CFB Start this season to add to his 64-39 CFB Run since last season! He has delivered a HOT 70-40 Run L23 Days to add to his 625-509 Run on all premium plays since February 11th! This money train stays right on track with Jack's Saturday College Football 9-Pack for $69.95! Leading the charge are FOUR 20* Top Plays along with 5 totals in all as he adds to his 413-316 Run on Football Totals!

It would cost you roughly $335 to buy all nine plays separately, so YOU SAVE $265 with this 9-Pack! Sign up and bet with confidence knowing you are GUARANTEED PROFITS or the next day of college football is ON JACK!

1* NCAAF - Notre Dame/N Carolina FREE PICK on North Carolina +22.5

Saturday Headliners includes the SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR Gators vs Tigers and a Big Red Zone Side. There is also MLB Playoff Game 1 power systems and Early Season NHL. Comp play below

The Saturday comp play in CFB Action is on Iowa St at 12 noon eastern. The Cyclones have won the last 2 in the series by double digits and are better than their 2-2 record as the losses came to undefeated Utah and Iowa. West Virginia may be 3-1 but has allowed 67 points the last 2 weeks and were blown out at home by OK. ST The Mountaineers are in a game 5 play against system that is based on teams off their first loss as a dog off a loss of 14 or more if they scored 35 or less and they are taking on a team off a home dog loss. These road teams have not covered since 2007. Look for Iowa St to to take home the spoils. GL Rob V-

Navy vs Air Force 
Noon EST 
5-Unit bet UNDER the posted total of 45.5 points 

This is one of my favorite betting algorithms and requires a bet on the UNDER in game involving the armed forces academies (Navy, Army, Air Force) that is played at home or on a neutral site and with the opponent of that game averaging 21 or more points. That combination of parameters has compiled a 29-9 UNDER record good for 76% winning bets since 2006.

67% ATS this College Football season and ranks #7 in profits and 3rd in ROI. Do not miss out on his 10-UNIT MAX bet of the Month going Saturday.
 

A respected sharp played OVER 50.5 with a projection around 58.

Houston has been exceptional at creating quality possessions and converting drives into touchdowns. Quarterback Conner Weigman accounted for six touchdowns in the Cougars' latest game—four passing and two rushing.

UCF's 21-13 victory over TCU was deceptively low scoring. TCU outgained UCF 343-266, but four turnovers prevented those yards from becoming points. UCF also owns a strong rushing-efficiency profile that can attack Houston's vulnerability in preventing opponents from finishing drives.

The current number remains below multiple projections, but it lacks the elite systems corroboration necessary to move beyond the free card.

Play to: OVER 52.5.

Saturday's Free CFB Pick

PLAY ON: Auburn +7

#131 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL -14.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This Clemson team is not good and we jumped the gun last week fading them at Cal in a tough travel spot. Problem is, while Clemson’s offense isn’t good, Cal’s offense stinks this year. This is a much better spot to fade the Tigers who are facing possibly the most talented team in the country. Miami is every bit as talented as LSU who beat this Clemson team 51-10 and outgained them by almost +4.0 YPP. A complete beatdown. The Tigers are 3-1 but they have a negative YPG and YPP margin. They have a win over Georgia Southern in a game that was 16-7 with just over 6:00 remaining in the game, then they came from 2 TD’s down at home to beat UNC (long rain delay changed the momentum in that one) and then last week they beat a Cal team that ranks 125th in YPP offense (4.2 YPP). Now they face one of the best few teams in the country that should be highly motivated to roll big in this one as the Canes face very few big time opponents this season and they have next weekend off so nothing to look ahead to. Clemson’s offense is not good ranking 132nd in success rate, 128th in total offense, and 124th in YPP. They now face a defense that ranks #2 in total defense, #5 in YPP defense, and #1 in rush D allowing only 39 YPG on the ground. That’ll be a huge issue for Clemson as they rely heavily on the run and their true freshman QB Reynolds is still learning the ropes. Miami has allowed just 36 total points in 4 games this year and we expect very little out of Clemson’s offense here. On the other side of the ball, the Canes offense is ranked #1 in the country in total offense and #1 in YPP at 8.5. They are very balanced rushing for almost 230 YPG (top 20) and passing for 361 YPG (top 5). Throw out their 77-7 win over FCS FAMU and Miami is still averaging 43 PPG. They should do damage vs a Clemson D that ranks 84th in success rate, 91st in total defense, 102nd in rush defense, and 78th vs the pass. If Miami comes to play, which we guess they will, this is a mismatch. The Canes will want to prove they belong near the top despite their ACC affiliation. Trying to match LSU’s 51-10 win would be a good step in that direction. Miami rolls.

UNDER 49

Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the UNDER 49. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Saturday FREE NCAA O/U Play

4*/5* top plays 350-278 56% +3582 L3 years! The current run has been strong. A BIG Card is going up for this weekend, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”

Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take the Over in Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska Cornhuskers (4 p.m., Saturday, October 3, FS1). We faded Maryland with last week’s free play, and the Terrapins delivered a rough performance in a 54-3 home loss to UCLA. That result has turned up the heat on their head coach, and we expect a better offensive effort this Saturday. The bigger concern remains Maryland’s defense, which surrendered 34 points to Virginia Tech before allowing 54 to UCLA. Nebraska has been piling up points, scoring 49, 56, 34, and 31 in its first four games of 2026. With the Cornhuskers rolling offensively and Maryland looking to respond, we like this matchup to go over the total. Back the Over. Don’t miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Card, featuring top plays in football, hockey, UFC, and soccer. Sign up now and put 54 years of handicapping experience to work for you!

My selection is on South Carolina minus the points over Kentucky at 4:15 pm et on Saturday.

The wheels have come off for South Carolina but the schedule has had a lot to do with that as it has run into Mississippi State and Alabama over the last two weeks. We'll call for the Gamecocks to bounce back as they return home from Tuscaloosa licking their wounds following a 49-18 dismantling last Saturday night. Kentucky checks in off back-to-back wins and covers against Texas A&M and South Alabama. This is a critical spot for South Carolina if it wants to make something of this season as the upcoming schedule features a trip to the Swamp to take on Florida before a difficult home game against Tennessee, sandwiched around a bye week. The Gamecocks will almost certainly be an unpopular home favorite in the betting markets and this line has already come down (at the time of writing). Take South Carolina (8*).

*Free Play on West Virginia* The Iowa State Cyclones have been better than expected, but I think the market has gone a little too crazy backing Iowa State here. They have gone from an underdog all the way up to 3.5 point favorites. They played Iowa closer than expected. The CyHawk game is always tight and low scoring. 

Iowa State was dominated at home by Utah last week. The stats in that one were even more lopsided than the final score. 

Hawkins is a dynamic quarterback who can beat you two ways. West Virginia is a run first team, but they are also first in passing play explosiveness. I think this is a good chance for West Virginia to bounce back from their disappointing loss at home last weekend. 

I'll grab the points and the underdog.

Take West Virginia.

(41-19 Last 60 CFB Totals. Saturday CFB Totals Trio is up for just $17 per play. Join in!) 

1* Free Pick on Navy +3½

This one starts and ends with the number.

SP+ has Navy 85th at -3.7 and Air Force 83rd at -3.4.

That is a coin flip on a neutral field.

Getting 3.5 points in a service academy game is buying value the ratings say shouldn't exist.

Air Force's 2-1 start looks better on paper than it did on tape.

The Falcons lost at home to North Dakota State 38-32 and needed a shootout to escape Nevada 36-33 last week.

That defense ranks 94th in SP+ and hasn't stopped anyone with a pulse.

Navy is 1-2, but look at how.

Both losses came on the road by a combined 12 points, 24-20 at UAB and 38-30 at FAU, against AAC offenses built to throw.

Air Force is a completely different assignment.

The Mids are still putting up 30.67 a game themselves.

The head-to-head leans the same way.

Navy has won the last 2 meetings in this series, and these academy games are always tight.

Limited possessions, clock-eating drives, one or two plays deciding it.

In that environment the hook on 3.5 is a real cushion.

There's also last season's finish to remember.

Navy closed by edging Army 17-16 in December and then handled Cincinnati 35-13 in the bowl.

This program knows how to win close, physical games against disciplined opponents.

Two evenly rated teams, a triple-option slugfest, and a field goal plus the hook in my pocket.

That's the bet.

You make money when you buy, and 3.5 here is a good buy.

I like Navy

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Arizona State -3.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Arizona State as 3.5-point home favorites over Baylor Saturday.  This will be a 10:30 EST kick and an electric atmosphere for a night game in Tempe.  The Sun Devils will be recharged and ready to go after a bye week following two grueling games against Texas A&M on the road and Kansas in London.  They split those games but deserved better against Texas A&M.  They held the Aggies to 255 yards and outgained them by 114 yards in a fluky final.  Baylor's 17-16 loss to Auburn in the opener doesn't look as good now as Auburn has struggled this season.  The 23-13 win over Colorado last week was misleading too as they were outgained by 26 yards by the Buffaloes, who were playing with a backup QB.  This will be Baylor's first true road game and their toughest game to date in my opinion.  Take Arizona State.

**5X Top 10 NCAAF Handicapper!** Dave was the #5 NCAAF Capper in 2011, the #7 NCAAF Capper in 2009 and the #5 NCAAF Capper in 2008! He had his best season to date finishing as the #2 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2020! He also finished as the #4 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2024 two seasons ago! He is also on a 154-114 Run on NCAAF 7* Top Plays as well as a 20-3 Top Plays Run in all sports! Give your book the beating it deserves today and hop on board for Dave's Saturday NCAA Football 9-Pack for $49.95! By doing so you'll earn access to his 7* Pac-12 Game of the Month along with eight 6* picks for you to crush your book with today ladies and gents! Dave guarantees you'll cash in a profit or you get his next day of NCAA Football picks for FREE!

1* FREE INFO PLAY Texas State -8½ -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Virginia -2.5

The Florida State Seminoles are just not good.  Mike Norvell will be gone soon and the team knows it.  The 2-2 start this season has been alarmingly bad outside of the 14-point loss to Alabama, which they still gave up 567 yards and 8.6 per play.  Their 27-24 loss to SMU was a joke as they were outplayed badly giving up 585 yards and 8.7 per play to the Mustangs and should have lost by more, but were +3 in turnovers.  They only outgained New Mexico State by 100 yards in their 34-17 win as 31.5-point home favorites.  They only outgained Central Arkansas by 169 yards in their 34-7 win, not coming close to covering as 46.5-point favorites.  Virginia is proving its run to the ACC title game last year was no fluke, opening 3-1 this season with its only loss to West Virginia.  The Cavaliers covered the spread in their three other games beating NC State 34-8 and outgaining them by 245 yards.  They beat Norfolk State 59-3 as 46.5-point favorites and Delaware 42-3 as 19.5-point favorites.  We are getting the Cavaliers at a discount as only 2.5-point favorites against Florida State this week.  Give me Virginia.

*Top 10 Overall Capper 4 of L10 Years!*

*#1 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2020-21!*

*#1 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2012-13!*

*#2 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2017-18!*

*#2 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2016-17!*

*#3 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2008-09!*

*#9 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2014-15!*

*#10 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2018-19!*

*#10 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2024-25!*

*1958-1710 Football Run! ($1,000/game bettors up $78,760)*

*1669-1488 NCAAF Run! ($1,000/game bettors up $42,900)*

*930-787 Run on NCAAF 5 Unit Top Plays!*

I am the #8 Ranked Football Capper All-Time on this network! I am a 5-Time Top 3 NCAAF Capper on this network! I am riding a 33-13 Run on Football Top Plays which includes a 20-9 NCAAF Run on Top Plays! Come bet with a proven winner today and get your hands on my Saturday All-Inclusive NCAAF 15-Pack for $49.99! This card features SIX 5 Unit BEST BETS for you to feast on! You pay *ONLY $3.33/Play* for all 15 winners, and you are GUARANTEED-to-PROFIT or I'll send you my next day of NCAAF plays for FREE!

As we now enter another month of college football, this is the time where you MUST follow a proven and documented winning college football Handicapper/Bettor. And that’s just what Joe D’Amico is! I am excited and honored to say I have my strongest college football card in years. Join me this Saturday, as we crush the books, and sweep the board. It doesn’t get any bigger or better than this: ACC ANNIHILATOR, CONTRARIAN WINNER, 1-0 MVP, 1-0 BOOKIE BUSTER, MWC MONEYMAKER, 1-0 BIG TEN BIG GAME WINNER, HI ROLLER, & NO LIMIT PLAYS.

Saturday’s Free Winner: Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Game 142.

1:00 PM PST/4:00 PM EST.

My friends, if the Cornhuskers didn’t have the Hoosiers and Ducks in back-to-back games on deck, this would’ve been a premium release for me. This is a much-improved Nebraska squad looking to put a hurting on a conference opponent here. Last year’s October 11 matchup on the road saw them eke out a 34-31 victory as nearly a touchdown favorite. So far, the Cornhuskers own a perfect 4-0 record which does include a 1-0 mark in Big 10 play. I mentioned a moment ago they have some tough opponents on deck. But this is their last chance to fine tune their squad on both sides of the line of scrimmage before their schedule gets tougher. By the way, they’re also a perfect 3-0 at home and have covered three of their four outings this season. In all sincerity, they could’ve covered the one game they did not as they were a 27.5-point favorite at home against North Dakota and won by 27-points. Maryland is in for a long and ugly campaign. They did come out victorious in their first two outings of the season. But those games were against Hampton and Connecticut. Their last two contests were both losses and no covers, both played at home against Virginia Tech and UCLA. As a matter of fact, this team has now lost eight of their last 10 going back to last season SU, and seven of those 10 ATS. Now, maybe they could be caught in a look-ahead role as seven days from this game, on the road they have to face Ohio State. Having said all that, the Terrapins offense can’t get out of their own way, committing five turnovers and ranking 91st on the ground. Yes, their passing game has been impressive ranking 28th in college football. But they did stall badly last week putting up just three-points at home against the Bruins. This week they are facing the 10th ranked scoring defense in college football. Not only are the Cornhuskers tough against the rush, they are also amazing against the pass. They rank in the top-25 in just about every major defensive category. Let’s flip it and talk about the Nebraska offense, which has only committed one turnover, is averaging over 42.5 PPG, ranks in the top-20 in rushing, and is solid in the air. How in the world can the UM defense slow them down? It isn’t going to happen, my friends. Of course, they allowed just 14 combined points against teams like Hampton and Connecticut. But when they stepped up in class, their defense got lit up for a combined 89 points the last two games against Virginia Tech and UCLA. As I mentioned at the start of this breakdown, if Nebraska wasn’t going up against Indiana and Oregon in the next two weeks, this would’ve been a premium release for me. Take the Cornhuskers. Thank you.

I think UNLV will be able to beat California this Saturday. They have the better offense as well as matching up better on the ground. Ja’Den Thomas is gaining 5.9 ypc and QB Jackson Arnold can run as well. He had his best game throwing the ball last week throwing for 3 touchdowns.

California will be coming in from a bad game against Clemson. They were only able to gain 231 yards and did not score a touchdown on offense. May also be without their best running back due to injuries.

I think with UNLV at home and beating Akron last week by 38-10. They will be able to run the ball and and find a way to take the game.

Death Valley has a way of making a number look bigger than it is. Saturday night it might not be big enough.

No. 4 Miami is laying 16.5 at Clemson, kickoff 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, total sitting around 47.5. That is the widest home dog number of Dabo Swinney’s tenure, and the first time the Tigers have been a double-digit home underdog with him on the headset. The market opened in the high teens and has been nibbled down toward 16.5, which is the number you want if you are on the Hurricanes. Buy the half-point if the book is stuck at 17.5. Seventeen is a classic key number in college football, and laying it for juice is how good tickets turn into pushes.

Sports-Reference has Miami at 4-0, 207 points scored, 51.8 a game (3rd of 138) and 9.0 allowed (4th). The point differential through four games is 42.8, the fattest start in program history. Simple rating system is 15.12, 15th nationally, even with a strength of schedule that ranks 123rd. That last part is the objection. Stanford, Florida A&M, Wake Forest and Central Michigan are not a murderers’ row. Clemson’s schedule strength is 6th. The eye test still has to travel.

Clemson’s page on the same site is the other half of the card. The Tigers are 3-1, scoring 21.0 a game (120th) and allowing 22.0 (63rd). SRS 11.85, 31st. They have 84 points in four games. Miami has 207. That is not a style clash. That is a different sport.

Darian Mensah is completing 88.7 percent, 94 of 106, for 1,211 yards, 14 touchdowns and no interceptions. Passer rating 228.2. Team offense is at 588.8 yards a game and 8.5 a play, third downs at 55.6 percent, red zone 19 of 21. The defense has allowed 158 rushing yards all season, 39.5 a game, and 3.99 yards a play. Opponents are converting 29 percent of third downs. Ten sacks, 19 tackles for loss. Mark Fletcher Jr. (230 yards, 6.4 a carry) and tackle Ahmad Moten are expected back after sitting out the Central Michigan win. That is the group laying the number.

Clemson’s quarterback, true freshman Tait Reynolds, is 54 of 84 for 521 yards, one touchdown and two picks, rating 115.6. Team passing sits at 142.8 yards a game, 127th. Third downs are 15 of 55, 27 percent. The one real counter is Gideon Davidson, 346 rushing yards, including 105 against North Carolina and 159 and two scores at Cal. If Miami’s front does what it has done to everyone else, Davidson is running into a wall and Reynolds has to throw. He has not had to do that against a defense in the top five in yards allowed.

The schedule split matters. Miami’s road games were 45-6 at Stanford (covered 24.5) and 33-20 at Wake Forest in the rain (failed to cover 20.5). That Wake ticket is the scar. They won by 13 as a three-score favorite, looked ordinary for three quarters, and the under cashed. Clemson’s three wins since the 51-10 loss at LSU have come by 15, 8 and 14, against Georgia Southern, North Carolina and Cal. The defense has been the story in that stretch, 12.3 points a game and six second-half points total, plus five takeaways. That is a real improvement. It is also three games against offenses that do not complete 89 percent of their throws.

Weather is the other tax. Forecasts have it around 78 degrees with roughly a 50 percent chance of rain. Rain in Death Valley shortens the game and helps the dog. It does not invent a passing game.

A couple of spots that actually show up in the ledger, small samples and all:

Fade Clemson as a double-digit underdog under Dabo Swinney. The Tigers are 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread in those spots, including last month’s 51-10 loss at LSU as a 10.5-point dog. It is only the sixth time in 245 games he has been laid double digits, and the first time it has happened at home.

Miami as a favorite of 16 or more this season: 2-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread. Stanford covered clean. Wake Forest did not. Average margin in those two road spots was 26 points. The miss was the one played in bad weather.

Clemson’s offense against anyone that can tackle: 10 points at LSU, then 22, 28 and 24 against the three teams that followed. None of those three were ranked. Miami is allowing 9.0.

The lean is Miami -16.5, and only at 16.5. A 17-point win cashes that ticket and pushes 17. Projected score is something like 34-14, which is the shape most of the public models have been spitting out, win probability in the mid-to-high 80s. The moneyline at -800 to -1000 is a hold-your-nose number. You are risking a mortgage payment to win a steak. Pass.

If the half-point is gone and the only Miami side is -17.5, the better ticket is the under 47.5. Clemson cannot finish drives, Miami’s defense has not allowed a rushing touchdown, and a wet night in the valley is how a 51-point offense turns into a 31-point offense. The under is the hedge for the one result that actually stings: Miami wins, Clemson hangs around, and the backdoor never quite opens because the Tigers cannot throw.

The public has been on the dog for most of the week, which is why 17.5 became 16.5. That is not steam against Miami. That is people who cannot believe Dabo is a home dog by more than two touchdowns. The results page can believe it. Clemson has not kept a game within 17 of a team this good in a long time, and the quarterback who would have to do it has one touchdown pass in four games.

Shop the number. Lay 16.5. Leave 17.5 for somebody who likes pushing.

1*

1% GOLD RUSH on Central Florida/Houston: under 51½

Free Play – Take #165 Michigan State +10 over Wisconsin (12:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, October 3)

Last week I had Michigan State, and they were overwhelmed by Nebraska at home. Wisconsin was trailing by 10 points at Penn State in the fourth quarter, which looked like a sure defeat, but they tallied two TDs and engineered the upset. So, the Badgers roll at home over the Spartans? In the immortal words of Lee Corso, “No so fast, my friend!” No question Wisconsin is playing much better than the last few years, but back? Spartans coach Pat Fitzgerald is a solid 38-23 ATS as a road underdog. Luke Fikell might be getting things together, yet he’s still a mediocre 16-21 ATS after three or more consecutive straight up wins. Fitzgerald has FIVE outright upsets of Wisky, and the underdog is on a 5-1 ATS surge. Badgers win, but as Corso said, “closer than the experts think.”

>CFB Early Saturday Totals Play of the Week! 10-4 run

>CFB After Dark Fabulous 4-Pack! (Guaranteed Profit)

>NFL Sunday Best Bet in a 19-2 Spot!

3* on under

1*

Temple +6.5 at USF (Raymond James Stadium)

USF opens American Conference play at 4-0 but is only 2-2 ATS. Temple is 1-3 straight up and 3-1 ATS. The Owls losses to Penn State, Toledo (OT) and Army could all have gone the other way, and they've covered everything except last week. Keeler's teams play close as dogs, and Temple leads the all-time series 6-4.

USF

 Defense is the story: 14.0 points allowed per game (21st nationally) and 322 yards. D.J. Crowther is the engine on offense with 325 rush yards and 5 TDs. Michael Van Buren Jr. has 0 INTs, but the offense is feast-or-famine at 350.5 yards per game (105th).

Temple

 The Owls run it at 220.3 yards per game (24th), but USF is tough to run on, allowing 121.8 per game and just one rushing TD all year. Temple's defense is leaky (133rd in third-down rate) and the O-line has some injury concerns. The one thing that worries me is the red zone. Temple has scored on every trip inside the 20, and USF has allowed a score on every opponent trip. It's a small sample, but it's a real tell.

The total

 USF just won 14-6 and Temple lost 21-17. USF's last two competitive games (Army and BGSU) totaled 52 and 20 points, and the number has fallen from the mid-50s to 48 for a reason. 

The plays

Temple +6.5 (NoVig). You might be able to wait for a 7, but I don't think we get there.

Under 49.5 (Rivers)

1H Under 24.5. It's moved to 23.5, but I don't mind paying the extra juice for the full point.

Let's cash some tickets!