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1* Bet on Air Force -5½
1* NCAAF - Houston/Utah FREE PICK on Houston +7
Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take #387 Michigan State Spartans over UCLA Bruins (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 24, CBS)
UCLA has been a pleasant surprise in the Big Ten this season, standing as the only unbeaten team in either the Big Ten or SEC. Still, this is a hefty number to lay with a backup quarterback. The Bruins were one-dimensional against Wisconsin, and I expect Michigan State to make running the football difficult again.
The Spartans are rebuilding under a new coach, but they’ve shown they can compete, taking Illinois and Northwestern down to the wire. I expect another competitive effort here, with Michigan State keeping the final margin within 7–10 points.
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Saturday's Free CFB Pick
PLAY ON: Indiana -7
Wyoming presents a worthwhile underdog opportunity because of its improved quarterback production, a favorable historical betting system and a market that has shown resistance to Air Force despite the Falcons' superior season-long statistics.
The Cowboys have a difficult assignment against one of college football's most productive rushing offenses. However, Wyoming's ability to generate offense with quarterback Tyler Hughes gives the home team a credible path to remaining within the number.
HISTORICAL SYSTEM — 436-307-9 ATS, +98.3 UNITS, 12.0% ROI
Wyoming qualifies for a profitable league-wide historical system that has produced 436 covers in 743 decisions, a 58.7% winning percentage.
The system has generated +98.3 units and a 12.0% return on investment.
That is a meaningful historical advantage, particularly given the sample size.
A separate historical system identifies both Wyoming and Air Force as qualifiers. Because it supports opposing sides in the same matchup, it provides no additional directional advantage.
The 436-307-9 system remains Wyoming's strongest historical support.
ORGANIC MATCHUP — TYLER HUGHES GIVES WYOMING A DIFFERENT OFFENSIVE DIMENSION
Wyoming's offense has become more versatile with quarterback Tyler Hughes developing into a significant rushing threat.
Against Northern Illinois, Hughes threw for 196 yards and rushed for another 183, accounting for four touchdowns in a 41-23 victory.
He earned Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week honors for that performance.
His mobility is particularly important against Air Force because the Falcons must account for designed quarterback runs as well as conventional passing plays.
Wyoming's offensive line has also been productive in run blocking, ranking sixth nationally in line yards according to one efficiency assessment.
Running backs Markell Holman and Samuel Harris provide additional rushing options, although Harris has been dealing with a concussion and is listed as probable.
Wyoming has offensive-line injury concerns of its own. Tackle Nathan Geiger is out with a torn ACL, while guard Brandt Rice is sidelined with a broken ankle. Their replacements must maintain blocking consistency against Air Force's defensive front.
AIR FORCE'S RUSHING ATTACK — THE PRINCIPAL THREAT
Air Force averages approximately 343 rushing yards per game, compared with Wyoming's 185.
The Falcons' option attack presents considerable problems for a Wyoming defense allowing approximately 172 rushing yards per game.
Air Force's offense has been exceptionally efficient, ranking among the nation's leaders in offensive success rate.
The Falcons' ability to generate positive yardage on early downs creates manageable third-down situations and allows them to control possession.
Wyoming must maintain disciplined defensive assignments against the dive, quarterback keeper and perimeter pitch.
The absence of Air Force quarterback Liam Szarka because of a season-ending leg injury is significant, although the Falcons have continued to produce substantial rushing yardage without him.
Air Force tight end Griffin Stalfort is questionable, as is receiver S. Maiava-Alaimalo. Their availability could affect perimeter blocking and the limited passing packages used to punish defenses that overcommit against the run.
MARKET MOVEMENT AND FAIR-LINE ASSESSMENT
Air Force opened approximately -6.5 and has moved toward -5 to -5.5 at several sportsbooks.
That represents movement toward Wyoming despite the Falcons' superior record and offensive statistics.
However, the independent projections are divided.
Some make Air Force approximately a 3.5-point favorite, supporting Wyoming at +5.5.
Others favor Air Force by six to nine points, which provides a legitimate argument against taking the Cowboys.
The larger discrepancies deserve attention, but the disagreement prevents computer projections from providing strong independent confirmation.
Public spread-ticket information is also mixed. Action Network reported 51% on Wyoming, while Covers showed 54% support for Air Force.
There is no overwhelming, corroborated public consensus to fade.
WEATHER AND GAME CONDITIONS
Laramie's forecast calls for temperatures around 49–53 degrees, sustained winds near 10–11 mph and gusts potentially reaching 24–25 mph.
Those gusts could affect passing accuracy and longer kicks, although sustained winds are below the usual threshold for a substantial weather adjustment.
Both teams rely heavily on rushing production, reducing the potential impact of unfavorable passing conditions.
FINAL ASSESSMENT
Wyoming's strongest arguments are its profitable 436-307-9 historical system, iFRIDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2026 — COLLEGE FOOTBALL FREE PLAY
FREE PLAY — WYOMING +5.5 over AIR FORCE — 9:00 ET
Wyoming presents a worthwhile underdog opportunity because of its improved quarterback production, a favorable historical betting system and a market that has shown resistance to Air Force despite the Falcons' superior season-long statistics.
The Cowboys have a difficult assignment against one of college football's most productive rushing offenses. However, Wyoming's ability to generate offense with quarterback Tyler Hughes gives the home team a credible path to remaining within the number.
HISTORICAL SYSTEM — 436-307-9 ATS, +98.3 UNITS, 12.0% ROI
Wyoming qualifies for a profitable league-wide historical system that has produced 436 covers in 743 decisions, a 58.7% winning percentage.
The system has generated +98.3 units and a 12.0% return on investment.
That is a meaningful historical advantage, particularly given the sample size.
A separate historical system identifies both Wyoming and Air Force as qualifiers. Because it supports opposing sides in the same matchup, it provides no additional directional advantage.
The 436-307-9 system remains Wyoming's strongest historical support.
ORGANIC MATCHUP — TYLER HUGHES GIVES WYOMING A DIFFERENT OFFENSIVE DIMENSION
Wyoming's offense has become more versatile with quarterback Tyler Hughes developing into a significant rushing threat.
Against Northern Illinois, Hughes threw for 196 yards and rushed for another 183, accounting for four touchdowns in a 41-23 victory.
He earned Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week honors for that performance.
His mobility is particularly important against Air Force because the Falcons must account for designed quarterback runs as well as conventional passing plays.
Wyoming's offensive line has also been productive in run blocking, ranking sixth nationally in line yards according to one efficiency assessment.
Running backs Markell Holman and Samuel Harris provide additional rushing options, although Harris has been dealing with a concussion and is listed as probable.
Wyoming has offensive-line injury concerns of its own. Tackle Nathan Geiger is out with a torn ACL, while guard Brandt Rice is sidelined with a broken ankle. Their replacements must maintain blocking consistency against Air Force's defensive front.
AIR FORCE'S RUSHING ATTACK — THE PRINCIPAL THREAT
Air Force averages approximately 343 rushing yards per game, compared with Wyoming's 185.
The Falcons' option attack presents considerable problems for a Wyoming defense allowing approximately 172 rushing yards per game.
Air Force's offense has been exceptionally efficient, ranking among the nation's leaders in offensive success rate.
The Falcons' ability to generate positive yardage on early downs creates manageable third-down situations and allows them to control possession.
Wyoming must maintain disciplined defensive assignments against the dive, quarterback keeper and perimeter pitch.
The absence of Air Force quarterback Liam Szarka because of a season-ending leg injury is significant, although the Falcons have continued to produce substantial rushing yardage without him.
Air Force tight end Griffin Stalfort is questionable, as is receiver S. Maiava-Alaimalo. Their availability could affect perimeter blocking and the limited passing packages used to punish defenses that overcommit against the run.
MARKET MOVEMENT AND FAIR-LINE ASSESSMENT
Air Force opened approximately -6.5 and has moved toward -5 to -5.5 at several sportsbooks.
That represents movement toward Wyoming despite the Falcons' superior record and offensive statistics.
However, the independent projections are divided.
Some make Air Force approximately a 3.5-point favorite, supporting Wyoming at +5.5.
Others favor Air Force by six to nine points, which provides a legitimate argument against taking the Cowboys.
The larger discrepancies deserve attention, but the disagreement prevents computer projections from providing strong independent confirmation.
Public spread-ticket information is also mixed. Action Network reported 51% on Wyoming, while Covers showed 54% support for Air Force.
There is no overwhelming, corroborated public consensus to fade.
WEATHER AND GAME CONDITIONS
Laramie's forecast calls for temperatures around 49–53 degrees, sustained winds near 10–11 mph and gusts potentially reaching 24–25 mph.
Those gusts could affect passing accuracy and longer kicks, although sustained winds are below the usual threshold for a substantial weather adjustment.
Both teams rely heavily on rushing production, reducing the potential impact of unfavorable passing conditions.
FINAL ASSESSMENT
Wyoming's strongest arguments are its profitable 436-307-9 historical system, improved quarterback production, home-field advantage and market movement toward the Cowboys.
Air Force remains the stronger overall rushing team, and Wyoming's defensive vulnerability against the run is a substantial concern.
The selection is therefore best classified as a free play rather than a premium wager.
FREE PLAY — WYOMING +5.5 over AIR FORCE — 9:00 ET
Play to: WYOMING +5.5.mproved quarterback production, home-field advantage and market movement toward the Cowboys.
Air Force remains the stronger overall rushing team, and Wyoming's defensive vulnerability against the run is a substantial concern.
The selection is therefore best classified as a free play rather than a premium wager.
FREE PLAY — WYOMING +5.5 over AIR FORCE — 9:00 ET
Play to: WYOMING +5.5.
My selection is on Hawaii minus the points over Northern Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.
I'm still not sure most bettors are aware of how bad Northern Illinois is this season. The Huskies were once a perennial MAC contender but it's been a major struggle as they make their transition to the Mountain West Conference. NIU enters this game 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS with the lone pointspread victory coming in a 42-17 rout at Arizona. Hawaii will look to take its frustrations out here after it dropped four straight games. Keep in mind, the Rainbow Warriors have run into a couple of tough opponents in Arizona State and New Mexico over the last two weeks. They'll relish the opportunity to take a step down in class and earn their first road victory of the season. Take Hawaii (8*).
OVER 50.5
Locking this in early. Illinois has been a defensive mess, ranking 100th in scoring defense and 119th against the pass before changing coordinators. A bye week won't magically fix those personnel problems, and Oregon has the weapons to take advantage. The Illini have also played OVER the total in five of six games, while Oregon is 4-2 to the OVER. Illinois freshman QB Michael Clayton II showed some serious confidence with two TD passes against Michigan State, and Colin Dixon gives him a dangerous downfield target. Both teams have scoring opportunities here, and 50.5 is a manageable number. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.
Saturday FREE NCAAF O/U Play
The current run has been strong, and today’s card is posted. HUGE 9-1 FOOTBALL weekend run. Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”
BIG Friday Card has 100% System Plays in CFB, Game 1 of the World Series and Canadian Football. Comp play below.
The CFB Comp Play is on Tulsa minus the point or two at 8:30 eastern. Tulsa hosts Army tonight after beating them on the road last season. Rob notes that CFB Friday night road dogs of less than 4 points are 1-11 straight up and 1-10-1 to the spread long term in week 13 or earlier if the total is 69 or lower and they are in off a home win and the home team is off a road win. This should be a higher scoring game and Tulsa will need to stop the vaunted Army ground game. The Cadets defense is not as good as years past and could struggle to contain the Tulsa offense here. Play on Tulsa. GL Rob V-
1* Free Pick on NC State -6½
Stanford is averaging 18.29 points a game this season while giving up 36.57.
That gap is the whole story here.
Strip out last week's 34-7 win over FCS Elon and the Cardinal's recent tape is ugly.
They lost 58-7 at Notre Dame, 57-3 at Wake Forest, and 35-7 at Duke.
Three blowouts by a combined 150-17 against real competition.
NC State comes in 3-3, and I'm not going to dress that up.
The Wolfpack got handled 38-14 by Wake Forest in their last outing.
But over their last 5 they're 3-2 and scoring 38 points a game, with wins over Louisville 31-28 and App State 41-31.
Wake Forest is the useful common opponent.
The same team that beat NC State by 24 beat Stanford by 54.
Even on a bad day, the Wolfpack are two to three touchdowns better than this Cardinal roster.
There is an injury wrinkle to track.
Dave Doeren said "We're day-to-day on Kamen Smith, JoJo Trader, Duke Scott, Tristan Teasdell." Scott was later listed out.
That matters, but NC State at 80 percent still outclasses a Stanford offense averaging 17 points over its last 5.
The number is the sell.
A team allowing 36.57 a game should be catching double digits against an ACC offense scoring 33.
Laying 6.5 against an opponent that loses its competitive games by 4 and 5 touchdowns is buying at a discount.
Stanford covers this only if NC State completely no-shows on a Friday night.
I'm not betting on that twice in a row.
I like NC State
1* Free Wiseguy Play on Air Force -5½ -105
*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*
If we've learned anything about the powerful SEC it is a week-to-week league where surprises occur. Auburn proved that last week stunning No. 1 Georgia, 27-24, and doing it as a 19 1/2-point road underdog.
Not to take anything away from the Tigers' great upset, but Georgia outgained them by 74 yards. Auburn was plus three in turnover ratio.
I don't see Auburn beating a second straight Top 25 team, especially in this major letdown spot. So I am on 18th-ranked LSU.
LSU is 0-2 on the road with a loss to seventh-ranked Mississippi and to Kentucky by one point in overtime. Yes, LSU has to prove itself on the road. Keep this in mind, though, about Auburn. It is 1-9 in its last 10 home games against top-25 teams.
Auburn's Byrum Brown is a dual threat quarterback. But he only has an 8-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. I would take LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt above Brown.
Auburn ranks 91st in passing and 94th in defending the pass. The Tigers also have a below average run defense.
LSU has it all over Auburn statistically ranking in the top 10 in scoring, passing and total yards. LSU also gives up the third fewest yards in the country. LSU rates No. 1 in the SEC in run defense allowing just 88.1 yards per game on the ground.
But what really clinched this handicap for me is LSU getting its star tight end, Trey’Dez Green, back from injury. Green had missed the past four games. I think so highly of Green that I took him in the first round of my SEC fantasy football draft. I find him to be the most talented tight end in the nation.
1% GOLD RUSH on Oklahoma/Mississippi State: under 47
Free Pick on NC State -6½ -110
3* on Air Force