Free CFB Picks

1* Free Pick on Sacramento State/Fresno State: under 45½

This total is about two offenses that both project among the worst in the country.

SP+ has Fresno State's offense 117th nationally at 18.1 and Sacramento State's 123rd at 16.6.

Those are projections built heavily on last season this early in the year, but when both units land that low, the direction is clear.

Neither team has played a game yet this season, so the case here is the matchup and the number, not form.

Sacramento State also makes this trip without starting QB Carson Conklin.

Backup Jackson Sharman gets the road start in the program's step up from the Big Sky to FBS ball, and he draws a Fresno State defense that projects 70th in SP+ at 25.7.

That is a bad spot for a capped offense.

The over case is real and worth addressing.

Sacramento State's defense projects 122nd at 35.7, and last season they got run on: Montana beat them 49-35 last October and they survived Northern Colorado 40-35 the week before.

Fresno State also lost safety Ryan Wilson for the season, thinning the back end.

Here's why that doesn't flip me.

A bad defense only fuels the over if the offense across from it can cash in, and Fresno State's attack projects 117th.

Units that low stall drives and settle for field goals.

Those Sacramento State shootouts came against Big Sky offenses with Conklin running their side of the scoreboard.

Neither condition exists Saturday.

Across six 2025 games Sacramento State averaged 36 points.

Take Conklin out and move them up a level, and that number is not walking through the door.

I like the Under

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Air Force +2

The Key: North Dakota State jumped up to the FBS this season.  The Bison have opened 2-0 with a pair of home wins over cupcakes in Jacksonville State and FCS Fordham.  This is where they get their 'welcome to the FBS' moment.  They will be playing their 3rd game already which is only because they played in Week 0.  And the Bison have to travel for the first time to Air Force, which will have a big home-field advantage in this one.  This is an Air Force team that returned 12 starts and should have one of the most improved defenses in the nation.  They also return QB Liam Szarka, who threw for 1,294 yards and 9 TD while also rushing for 922 yards and 13 TD last season.  They return their top RB in Owen Allen who rushed for 750 yards and 5 TD.  Air Force rushed for 431 yards in a 34-0 win over Duquesne.  The Falcons held the Dukes to 107 yards and 2.5 per play.  NDSU isn't ready to face the triple-option especially with no extra time to prepare for it.  Take Air Force.

**5X Top 10 NCAAF Handicapper!** Dave was the #5 NCAAF Capper in 2011, the #7 NCAAF Capper in 2009 and the #5 NCAAF Capper in 2008! He had his best season to date finishing as the #2 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2020!He also finished as the #4 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2024 two seasons ago! He is also on a 151-111 Run on NCAAF 7* Top Plays as well as a 22-11 NCAAF Run since last year! He is on a 16-6 Run L4 Days in all sports! Give your book the beating it deserves this weekend and hop on board for Dave's Saturday NCAA Football 13-Pack for $49.95! By doing so you'll earn access to his 7* AAC Game of the Month along with twelve 6* picks for you to crush your book with today ladies and gents! Dave guarantees you'll cash in a profit or you get his next day of NCAA Football picks for FREE!

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 9/12:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with the Utah Utes minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks. Utah (1-0) kicked off their season with a 66-14 victory against Idaho as a 37.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Utes have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Big 12. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games at home. Arkansas (1-0) began their season with a 31-14 win against North Alabama as a 40.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when playing with six days or less of rest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against FBS opponents. Take Utah minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 7 of 8 (88%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays continued by DELIVERING their 25* MLB AL West Total of the Year with the Seattle-Athletics Over last night!  Frank is on a 5-0 football run this week — including CA$HING his 25* CFB ACC Total of the Month with the SMU-FSU Under on Monday to improve his 22 of 35 (63%) College Football run with featured plays in the regular season — and now he furthers his 35 of 56 (63%) CFB featured plays run in the regular season with a 25* CFB Conference Game of the Month for Saturday! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

The same elite league-wide UNDER system that has produced 308-161 UNDERS — 65.7%, +130.9 units and a 25.4% ROI also identifies Air Force–North Dakota State. It’s an extra enhanced angle about teams off dominant rushing games are big unders.

Both sides bring run-oriented elements that can keep the clock moving, and the market remains clustered around the upper 40s, with 47.5 widely available and some markets posting even higher UNDER numbers. 

The system is outstanding, but without the same level of personnel, market and sharp corroboration as the Wise Guys, this stays a free play.

UNDER 47.5; anything 48.5 or higher is preferable.