MLB Free Picks Today: Expert Baseball Predictions, Odds & Betting Analysis
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Ricky's 1* play on MIA.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- The Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- The Rockies are 1-3 in their last 4 games.
- The Marlins are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.
It’s one of the stronger computer plays in some time on SportsLine, with KC winning 56% of simulations. That’s well above the 45.87 break-even when I bet at +118. But even at 105, it’s still strong.
Kansas City is the side based on a classic buy-low/sell-high setup. Tampa Bay comes in with the much better record at 48-33, while Kansas City sits at 35-50, but the market is already fully aware of that surface gap. The value is in what is underneath it.
The biggest factor is the luck gap. Tampa Bay rates as one of MLB’s luckier teams at +7.69, while Kansas City sits at -5.47. That creates a massive 13.16-game luck gap, the biggest qualifying edge on today’s card. The theory is simple: the luckiest teams are often overvalued, while the unluckiest teams are often undervalued. This matchup fits that perfectly.
The price also supports the Royals. Covers projects Kansas City to win 4.94 to 4.86, yet the Royals are still sitting as the underdog around +116. Any time the projected score slightly favors the dog, but the market is still shading the hotter, better-record team, there is built-in value.
Tampa Bay also just saw Kansas City last week, and while the Rays won two straight to close that series, this matchup now shifts to Kansas City. The Royals already won two of four in Tampa last week, both as sizable underdogs at +154 and +158, so this is not a team they have been unable to solve.
Griffin Jax has been solid, but he is not a true workhorse starter. His last five starts average only 4.2 innings, meaning Tampa Bay likely needs plenty from the bullpen. That matters because the Rays’ bullpen has not been automatic lately, allowing 10 earned runs over its last 19.1 innings.
Noah Cameron’s recent form is not pretty, but that is part of why the price exists. The Royals do not need him to dominate; they need him to keep them in range long enough for the market mispricing to matter. Kansas City’s lineup is projected right there with Tampa Bay, the luck gap screams value, and the underdog price gives us the better side.
This is not about betting the better record. It is about betting the better number. Kansas City is the undervalued side.
TOP UNDERDOG VALUE ON TUESDAY'S CARD!
Joe Duffy settled for a push with our lone release Monday, but the VALUE is even stronger today.
Tuesday's card is led by a LIVE underdog with the kind of PRICING and MARKET VALUE we love to attack. Sometimes the BEST opportunities come when the public is looking the other way.
One play. One TARGET. One EXCEPTIONAL opportunity to cash.
1* Free Sharp Play on Mets +116
1* Free Play on White Sox +126
1* Free Pick on Nationals/Red Sox: under 9½
All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.
1* Free Wiseguy Play on White Sox +126
*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*
Given the low quality of the offenses here, I find this total too high.
The Rays have hit the second fewest homers in the majors. They are averaging 2.7 runs a game during their past eight road contests.
Kansas City ranks in the bottom 10 in batting average, OPS and home runs. The Royals could be without three of their best offensive players. Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia are on the injured list and Jac Caglianone is day to day with a groin injury.
Two underrated pitchers are getting the start here - Griffin Jax and Noah Cameron.
Jax has a 2.40 ERA as a starter. Cameron has given up three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last nine starts.
My selection is on Colorado over Miami at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.
The Rockies dropped a high-scoring affair to open this series last night. We'll call for them to bounce back as we're being offered a generous price on Tuesday. Eury Perez will take the ball for Miami. The Marlins have lost his last four road starts. While he's pitched well at times, he'll be up against it at Coors Field, noting that the Rockies quietly rank top-five in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Tanner Gordon gets just his third start of the campaign for Colorado. His overall numbers this season aren't good, however, he is just one start removed from holding the mighty Dodgers to only one earned run over five innings at Dodger Stadium. It's not as if the Marlins are tearing the cover off the baseball right now. They rank 16th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week, even after last night's 10-run outburst. Take Colorado (8*).
3* on under