1* on White Sox +150

This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our Monday Free Play. Washington took two of three against the skidding Athletics and is just two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The Nationals have been a better road team this season but this is Coors Field where anything can happen. The Rockies took the middle game of their three-game series with the Reds and they continue to be respectable at home where they are 23-27 and those are only two fewer wins than all of last season. Kyle Freeland is coming off a pair of poor starts to end the first half but both of those were on the road and he has actually fared better this season at Coors Field. We are not saying it has been good by any stretch but he is on an equal playing field tonight as far as pitching goes. Andrew Alvarez has split time between starting and long relief and neither has been great with his 4.04 ERA and while has been better on the road with his 2.45 ERA, it has only been in 18.2 innings and not in Colorado. Play (908) Colorado Rockies

Fargo is coming off a loss with the Phillies on Sunday to close an awful weekend but it is a new week and he is back Monday to continue the awesome start to the season. THREE WINNERS Monday to go for the 3-0 SWEEP!

Ricky's 1* play on PHI.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Philadelphia are 9-2 in its last 11 games against an opponent in the National League West Division.

- LA Dodgers are 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.

- LA Dodgers ared 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against an opponent in the National League.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

1* FREE INFO PLAY Cubs -110

1 Dimer on Marlins vs Astros over 8½ -120

1* Free Pick on Marlins/Astros over 8½

1* Free Pick on Cardinals +106

1* Free Sharp Play on Tigers vs Cubs over 11½ -105

Monday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Tigers -101

1* Free Pick on Padres +135

Bryce Elder has given up 22 earned runs over his last four starts.

That is not a slump, that is a pitcher the league has figured out.

He is sitting on a 4.12 ERA that is going to look a lot worse by August if this trend holds, and the Padres lineup with Tatis, Bogaerts, and Machado at the top is exactly the kind of order that punishes a righty leaving pitches up.

The opposition case is straightforward: Elder's 3.82 xERA says he is due for positive regression, and JP Sears is the worse pitcher on paper with a 5.41 xERA.

Fair point.

But xERA does not care that Sears just went 5 innings of 1-hit ball against the Dodgers on July 5, and it does not price in that Elder has been getting barreled up start after start against much softer offenses than this one.

The Braves are also playing without Ronald Acuna Jr., Sean Murphy, and Ha-Seong Kim.

That is the middle of their order and their primary catcher.

Drake Baldwin batting leadoff and Brewer Hicklen hitting ninth is not the Atlanta lineup the market is pricing at -155.

San Diego just put up 19 runs on Kansas City.

Ty France and Jackson Merrill both went deep twice.

The offense is locked in, the opposing starter is bleeding runs, and Atlanta is playing a B-lineup at home.

At +135 on the dog, I am getting a plus number on the team with the current edge.

Price is the play.

I like the Padres

At first glance this looks like an easy Milwaukee play. The Brewers own the much better record, Jacob Misiorowski has been sensational with a 1.62 ERA, and they're coming off a sweep of Miami. That's exactly why the Mets are offering value.

The biggest reason is the Luck Factor. New York owns a -9.22 Luck Rating, the lowest in baseball, while Milwaukee sits at +5.97, one of the highest. The 15.19-point gap is the largest on Monday's board. Our long-held theory is that the market eventually overprices the luckiest teams and discounts the unluckiest ones, creating value on clubs like the Mets.

The pitching matchup isn't as lopsided as the ERA suggests. Misiorowski has been dominant, but this is his first start since July 7 after missing his final pre-break outing because of arm fatigue. Milwaukee says the extra rest was precautionary, but any time a young pitcher returns after an extended layoff, there's at least some uncertainty about workload and sharpness. 

Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta's season numbers (4.66 ERA) are inflated by a handful of disastrous outings. His strikeout ability remains intact with 104 punchouts in just over 104 innings, giving him swing-and-miss stuff capable of matching up with any lineup on a given night. If he simply avoids the big inning, the underdog price becomes attractive.

The Mets also arrive with momentum after taking the series finale in Philadelphia, beating the Phillies 6-1 behind six shutout innings from Nolan McLean while Francisco Lindor powered the offense with three hits and three RBIs. 

Finally, this line appears to be charging a premium for Milwaukee's recent form. The Brewers have won six of their last ten and just completed a sweep, while New York's poor overall record continues to suppress its market value. That's exactly the type of pricing imbalance Luck Factor seeks to exploit.

Bottom line: Milwaukee is the better team, but betting is about price, not simply picking the better club. With the largest Luck Gap of the day (15.19), a live strikeout pitcher in Peralta, and a sizable underdog return, the Mets offer the stronger betting value than the odds imply.

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Tampa Bay Rays +145

The Tampa Bay Rays ran into the current juggernaut that is the Boston Red Sox over the weekend and got swept.  Now they face a struggling Toronto Blue Jays team to get back on track, and the value on the Rays as big underdogs here is too good to pass up.

The Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last five games overall and scored a total of one run in their last two games against the Chicago White Sox over the weekend.  The Rays are 5-1 in their last six meetings with the Blue Jays.

Nick Martinez has been too good this season to be this big of an underdog.  He is 8-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 18 starts for the Rays.  Martinez has done his best work on the road, going 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in eight starts away from home.  He held the Blue Jays to one earned run in 5 innings of a 5-1 victory in his lone start against them this season.  

No question Dylan Cease is having a great season in Toronto.  But Cease is 1-3 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in eight career starts against the Rays.  He has allowed 20 earned runs and 59 base runners in 39 2/3 innings in those eight starts.  Bet the Rays Monday.

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1* MLB - Dodgers/Phillies FREE PICK on Phillies -128

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Brewers -190

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Monday 7-20-26

Oakland @ Arizona  (9:40 PM EST)
Play On:  Arizona -155

The Oakland A's travel to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks on Monday night.  

1* Best Bet on Blue Jays -1½

No analysis provided.

Go to the head of the line if you knew the Marlins have the best record in baseball since June. The Marlins are 26-13 since then.

They should not be an underdog to the struggling Astros, who are 1-6 in their last seven games and just got swept at home by the Orioles.

The Astros are 47-54, including 23-27 at home. It is not a fluke. This is a team on a clear decline as their minus 53 run differential shows.

The starting pitching matchup also favors the Marlins. I like crafty Miami starter Janson Junk more than Ronel Blanco, who hasn't pitched in the majors in 22 months following Tommy John surgery.

Blanco is likely to be on a pitch count and Houston's middle relief is vulnerable. 

Miami is 52-48 on the season and has a plus 19 run differential. Houston's offense is mediocre at best, while the Marlins rank seventh in batting average and OPS. The Astros could be without two of their three best hitters if Jeremy Pena and Christian Walker remain out. 

Hey folls, after breaking down the full Mondays rotational schedule with its mix of solid starters and varying park factors, one total stands out as the cleanest edge available, and it's the Under 7.5 runs in Minnesota at Cleveland. Joe Ryan takes the ball for the Twins against Tanner Bibee for the Guardians in what shapes up as a classic pitcher's duel at Progressive Field, where the numbers line up nicely for limited scoring.

Ryan enters with a 2.85 ERA across 110-plus innings this season, a 1.05 WHIP that limits traffic on the bases, 128 strikeouts at roughly a 28 percent rate, and opponents batting just .218 against him, all of which plugs neatly into run prevention math like ERA equals earned runs times nine divided by innings pitched to highlight his dominance. Bibee counters effectively with his own 3.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, strong command that keeps hard contact manageable, and a track record of holding teams in check even on off days, creating a combined starter profile where both guys excel at missing bats and inducing weak contact.

Progressive Field has played as a run-suppressing environment historically with home totals trending below league average by around 0.4 to 0.6 runs per game in recent seasons, and both the Twins and Guardians have shown modest offensive outputs lately, neither cracking the upper echelon in runs per game or slugging percentages against right-handed pitching. Layer in recent trends where unders have hit at a 55-plus percent clip in similar low-total, strong-starter post-break spots over the last couple of years, plus the Guardians' home splits and Minnesota's road scoring rates that dip against high-strikeout righties, and the angle sharpens further.

Take the season-long team batting averages, on-base percentages hovering near or below league medians, and adjust for these starters' ERAs plus WHIP-driven baserunner prevention, and the expected run environment sits comfortably under this number more often than not. Of course baseball delivers the occasional surprise rally, but when you stack the park factors, pitching matchups, historical data, and current form, this Under feels like the smart, disciplined play tonight.

Free Total Annihilator On Cardinals vs Angels under 9 -110

This is a FREE PLAY on the OVER A's/D-Backs.

I think the D-Backs will maintain their offensive momentum following their most recent 8-7 extra innings win over the Cardinals.

I also don't trust the A's Jeffrey Springs (3-9, 6.08 ERA), nor the D-Backs' Mitch Bratt (0-0, 6.00 ERA).

The opener of this series has "OVER" written all over it in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

Giants vs Royals MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): Royals right-hander Michael Wacha (5-7, 3.77 ERA) enters this start with one of the stronger quality-start profiles on the Kansas City staff, piling up 12 quality outings that speak to his ability to work six-plus innings and keep damage in check. Historically, Wacha has dominated this franchise, going 3-1 with a 1.94 ERA across 10 career starts versus the Giants, and even though his last meeting with them came back in 2024, that track record still creates a psychological edge. 

Giants righty Trevor McDonald (3-7, 5.02 ERA) has been volatile with a WHIP hovering around 1.30, and recent form shows inconsistency in both strikeout production and ability to avoid the long ball, including home runs allowed in back-to-back starts. 

The Bet: Royals (3%). 

Mike's been going through a rough stretch, but the longer-term results don’t lie: 28-15 (65%), +$12,560 with MLB runlines on $1,000 wagers since April 24. He has two MLB runline premium picks, one 4% TOP PLAY, locked in for Monday. 

Marc David Sports' Free Pick

We really like the road team in this matchup. The Nationals lost some momentum just before the All-Star break, but they came out of the break and took two of three from the A’s in Oakland. The Nats are 0–3 in Andrew Alvarez’s (2–3, 4.04 ERA) last three starts, yet this still sets up well for him given that Colorado struggles with left-handed pitching, while the Nats absolutely obliterates them, so this could turn into a short night for Kyle Freeland (2-8, 7.36).

This is a FREE PLAY on the NATIONALS!

[1%] Free Play on Cubs under 12 -110

Free Pick on Cardinals +106

FREE PLAY on Cardinals/Angels over 9

3* on Tigers

PSP Data Driven 1* Rays +1.5

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Underdog. The Blue Jays are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. The Rays are 5-1 in the last 6 head to head meetings.