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Free Play – Take #504 Chicago -3 over New England (8:15 p.m. ET, Thursday, October 22)
Been reading a lot about New England’s dramatic defensive advantage against the Bears. Granted, when you see how easily the Packers torched the Chicago secondary in destroying them 31-7, that’s hard to forget. Yet, on the season, the Patriots are #7 in total defense, with the Bears #8. Plus, the difference in pass defense is 2.8 YPG between the combatants, with the Pats holding a slight edge. With Caleb Williams back, Chicago has a more explosive element in the passing game to go along with the #1 rushing offense. QB Drake Maye has figured out his early-season woes, and New England has averaged 33.3 PPG in their last three outings. Nonetheless, Coach Vrabel’s O-Line had three starters injured last week, but the line did a good job last week with so many backups playing where needed. Having to do this on the road might be a different talk on a short week. For me, this is the swing element of the game, where Da Bears defense causes problems with different looks on running downs, while using exotic blitzes to create confusion in passing protection. The home team by 7.
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1* Best Bet on Bears -3
No analysis provided.
3* on under
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over San Francisco at 1 pm et on Sunday.
We cashed a ticket fading the 49ers on Monday Night Football as they won but failed to cover against the Commanders. Still undefeated on the season, I think the Niners are ripe for the 'upset' as they head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta is coming off a tough home loss to the Bears last week. That marked its second straight loss both SU and ATS and it has quickly fallen out of favor with most bettors following a brief surge that saw it win consecutive primetime games in Green Bay and New Orleans. I still think the Falcons are a good team with plenty of weapons on offense and a competitive defense led by an underrated coordinator in Jeff Ulbrich. Look for the Falcons to scheme up a gameplan to take San Francisco down to the wire at the very least on Sunday, noting that this will only be the Niners second true road game of the season (they won the other by a field goal in Seattle two weeks ago). Take Atlanta (8*).
1* Free Pick on Patriots +3
The line says Chicago is the better team.
The season says otherwise, and the matchup detail that should scare you off the Patriots doesn't hold up.
New England is 4-2 and has won 4 of its last 5, averaging 25.2 points a game over that stretch.
Drake Maye threw 3 touchdown passes in Sunday's 26-19 win over the Jets, and A.J.
Brown is back in the lineup after missing four games.
Chicago is also 4-2, but the profile is softer.
The Bears are averaging just 18.2 points over their last 5 and got run off the field 31-7 in Green Bay two weeks ago.
The obvious concern is New England's offensive line.
Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown are both doubtful, Morgan Moses is questionable, and Mike Vrabel admitted "I think that Caleb will have to be ready to go at multiple positions."
Here's why that concern is overpriced: Chicago can't make them pay.
Montez Sweat is suspended through Week 7, and Dayo Odeyingbo, second on the team with 3 sacks, just went on IR.
The two best edge rushers on this roster are watching from home.
Backup guards against a gutted pass rush is a survivable spot.
Caleb Williams looked sharp in his return against Atlanta, but he now faces Christian Gonzalez and a Patriots secondary that has been the strength of this team, on a short week, against a better opponent than the Falcons.
Getting a field goal with the team playing better football is the value side.
I like the Patriots
1* Free Wiseguy Play on Patriots +3 -110
*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*
1* Free Pick on Patriots/Bears under 51 -110
1 Dimer on Patriots vs Bears under 51 -110
OVER 53.5
Detroit's offense is averaging nearly 33 PPG and Goff has been surgical with 12 TD passes and zero turnovers. Now he gets an extra week to prepare for a Green Bay defense whose recent improvement came against backup QBs and a struggling Dallas attack. That's a different assignment than dealing with this Lions offense. The problem for Detroit? Its defense is surrendering more than 400 yards per game, giving Love and Green Bay plenty of opportunities to answer. With Jacobs expected back, the Packers have another weapon to keep the scoreboard moving. This one has shootout written all over it. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER 53.5. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.
Sunday FREE NFL O/U Play
The current run has been strong. 4-1 on NFL last week. A BIG Card is going up for this weekend, and Ray’s DISCOUNTED Day Pass gets you full access. Razor is a top-ranked handicapper across every network where his plays are sold, and he’s continuing to climb the leaderboards. As always… “Pad that bankroll one day at a time.”
1% GOLD RUSH on Bears -3
FREE PLAY on Patriots +3
1* Free Play on over 50½
1* Free Pick on Patriots/Bears under 50½
PSP Data Driven 1* Bears.
At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.
Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. The Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Chicago enters Thursday Night Football with a POWERFUL combination of overwhelming public support for its opponent, significant reverse line movement, two historically profitable betting systems and a favorable personnel matchup.
CONTRARIAN INTELLIGENCE — FOUR SOURCES CONFIRM OVERWHELMING PATRIOTS SUPPORT
One of the most compelling situations in sports handicapping occurs when the betting public overwhelmingly supports an underdog, particularly one receiving a full field goal.
Four major betting-information services report virtually identical support for New England:
Action Network: 75% Patriots spread tickets
DraftKings: 75% Patriots spread tickets
SportsLine: 75% Patriots spread tickets
OddsLogic: 74% Patriots spread tickets
Approximately three out of every four reported spread wagers support New England.
That is a REMARKABLE concentration of public support for a road underdog.
The market movement makes the situation even more compelling.
Chicago opened approximately -1.5 before moving to -3 and even -3.5 at certain sportsbooks.
Despite overwhelming public support for New England, the market has moved substantially toward Chicago.
This is a classic reverse-line-movement pattern, suggesting that the number of wagers on New England is not telling the entire story.
Although the underlying betting populations may overlap, the remarkable agreement among four reporting services provides strong corroboration of the public-underdog trend.
TWO PROFITABLE HISTORICAL SYSTEMS SUPPORT CHICAGO
The strongest historical system targets qualifying Thursday favorites.
These teams have compiled a 141-89-3 ATS record (61.3%), generating +43.1 units and a 17.0% ROI.
The average cover margin is +2.3 points.
A second qualifying system examines previous-game turnover margins.
It has produced a 121-89-3 ATS record (57.6%), earning +23.1 units and a 10.0% ROI.
Both systems support Chicago.
New England qualifies for a competing road-team system that has gone 622-489-21 ATS (56.0%), generating +84.1 units and a 6.9% ROI.
While that is a profitable historical situation, Chicago's Thursday-favorites system has the stronger winning percentage and return on investment.
PERSONNEL MISMATCH — NEW ENGLAND'S OFFENSIVE LINE
The Patriots face substantial offensive-line uncertainty entering a short-week road game.
Guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown are reportedly unlikely to play, while tackle Morgan Moses has been limited.
Those personnel concerns create an opportunity for Chicago to attack the interior of New England's protection.
Quarterback Drake Maye has faced pressure on approximately 26.2% of his dropbacks this season. Additional offensive-line disruption could force hurried throws, compromise intermediate passing routes and increase turnover opportunities.
Chicago defensive tackle Grady Jarrett is particularly important because interior pressure can prevent quarterbacks from stepping into their throws.
New England is also without wide receiver Romeo Doubs, who has been placed on injured reserve.
Demario Douglas has assumed an expanded receiving role, but the Patriots must account for multiple offensive personnel changes while preparing on limited rest.
Chicago's offense enters after scoring 31 points against Atlanta, while New England allowed 26 points to the Jets in its previous game.
UNDERLYING PERFORMANCE AND INDEPENDENT PROJECTIONS
There are legitimate statistical arguments supporting New England.
The Patriots own a +0.6 net yards-per-play differential, compared with Chicago's -0.7.
Both teams are 4-2, but New England's underlying efficiency has been stronger.
An independent rating benchmark makes Chicago only a one-point favorite, while another projection calls for a 24-20 Bears victory.
These differences demonstrate that the matchup is considerably more competitive than the public's overwhelming support for New England might suggest.
Nevertheless, Chicago's favorable personnel matchup, two profitable historical systems and substantial market movement provide important support for the home favorite.
FINAL ASSESSMENT
Chicago has a compelling combination of corroborated public-underdog support for New England, reverse line movement and historically profitable Thursday betting situations.
The Patriots' offensive-line injuries create additional opportunities for Chicago's defensive front, while the Bears enter with offensive momentum following their 31-point performance against Atlanta.
New England's stronger underlying efficiency remains a legitimate concern, but the overall evidence provides a substantial case for Chicago at the key number of three.
Play to: CHICAGO -3.