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1* Free Play on Giants +142
1* Bet on Sun/Wings: over 170½
Ricky's 1* play on Under.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- The Under are 3-1 in the Padres last 4 games.
- The Under is 4-2 in the Padres last 6 head to head meetings.
- The Total has gone Under in 3 of the Padres last 4 home games.
Verdict: Runs should be hard to come by in this game.
This is a FREE PLAY on the Mariners.
I believe that George Kirby and the home side are worth a second look in this matchup at home against the Twins on Sunday afternoon.
So far these teams have split the first two games of this series, but note that Minnesota is still only 26-29 on the road, while Seattle is 31-24 at home.
Kirby (8-9, 3.98 ERA), is coming off an outing to forget vs. the Rangers, allowing seven runs over four innings. Kirby has been at his best at home this season though, entering 5-4 with a 3.89 ERA in Seattle.
He'll be opposed by Taj Bradley (9-4, 3.65 ERA), who is off a no decision to the Royals, allowing two runs over six innings. While he's 6-3 on the road, Bradley's ERA rises to 4.14 away from friendly confines.
The Mariners snapped a three-game slide with yesterday's victory as they continue to chase down Houston and Texas in the AL West race.
Kirby is 1-2 with a 3.90 ERA in five starts vs. Minnesota, while Bradley is 0-0 with a 4.91 ERA in four career outings vs. Seattle.
Look for the MARINERS to build momentum off yesterday's win; consider Seattle.
Good luck, NP
1* Free Wiseguy Play on Portland Fire 0½ -115
*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*
1* Free Play on Portland Fire 0½ -115
1* Free Pick on Royals/Rockies: under 12½
Kansas City is running out a lineup missing Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, Jonathan India, and Kyle Isbel.
That's the entire spine of the offense on the IL.
What's left is Salvador Perez, Starling Marte, and a bunch of guys hitting in roles they weren't supposed to have in August.
Royals starter Seth Lugo has been steady through the noise.
Over his last three starts he's given up 5 earned runs in 19 innings.
The Statcast profile says he's living dangerously with a 5.38 xERA against a 4.22 ERA, but this Rockies lineup outside of Hunter Goodman isn't the group to punish soft contact the way a real offense would.
The opposition case is obvious.
Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is sitting on a 7.34 ERA and a .563 slug against, and yesterday's game at Coors went for 18 runs.
That's the whole reason this number is 12.5 instead of 9.5.
The market already knows Freeland is cooked.
His xERA is 5.63 and his xwOBA is .360 against a .390 actual, so the underlying is closer to bad-but-functional than historically broken.
Coors plays big, but you still need bats to score runs.
The Royals are trotting out Tyler Tolbert, John Rave, and Andrew Velazquez in the bottom third.
Wind is 5 MPH and it's an afternoon start with overcast skies, not a launching-pad setup.
Give me the 12.5 with this Royals lineup in the box.
I like the Under
1* MLB - Red Sox/Dodgers FREE PICK on Red Sox +147
1* FREE INFO PLAY Rockies +105
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Brewers/Angels UNDER 7.5
Jacob Misiorowski is a runaway winner of the NL Cy Young this season. He is 11-4 with a 1.58 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 20 starts with 185 strikeouts in 120 innings. Walbert Urena is one of the most underrated starters in the American League. He is 6-7 with a 2.70 ERA in 17 starts and two relief outings for the Angels. He has given up only 28 earned runs and 6 home runs in 93 1/3 innings. Give me the UNDER.
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Pure Lock's FREE MLB play Sunday 8-2-26
Boston +152
Join Pure Lock with his Money Line on Tigers v. A's!
Sunday's Free MLB Pick
PLAY ON: Tigers/A's OVER 11
Magic Mike's Royals vs Rockies MLB Free Pick
The Angle(s): While Coors Field is traditionally known as a hitters' paradise, backing the Under in today's series finale offers value.
Kansas City’s lineup has hit a noticeable wall, with major middle-of-the-order power missing from the lineup. Royals starter Seth Lugo (4-6, 4.22 ERA) comes into this matchup fresh off a impressive outing where he allowed just one run, and I think he can keep Colorado's bats in check.
Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland (2-10, 7.34 ERA) knows how to navigate his home ballpark and can keep the ball down when working quickly.
With two struggling offensive units and a high total posted for Denver, expect this one to stay below the high line.
The Bet: Under (3%).
ASA WNBA play on UNDER 165.5 Toronto Tempo at Golden State Valkyries, 8:30pm ET - Public money is flowing in on the OVER in this game, yet a few of the Sharp Books remain steadfast on their number, giving us a clear indication that the oddsmakers got the number right to begin with. The last time these two teams met they produced just 158 total points and that was just a few weeks ago in Toronto. The field goal attempts and pace of play were significantly lower than league standards with the two teams attempting just 112 field goals. Not to mention both teams show well above their season standards at 45% (Golden State – 41% on season) and 48% (Toronto – 44.2%). The league average for FGA’s per game in the WNBA is 136.4 and scoring is at an average of 172.6ppg. While Toronto’s defense is terrible, the Valkyries is the best in the league. Golden State is the home team here and will dictate pace of play (one of slowest in the league) and keep this a low scoring contest like most of their home games are (158ppg average). Our prediction model is forecasting a game in the 150’s. Bet UNDER!
1% GOLD RUSH on Tereza Valentova -195
FREE PLAY on Toluca -173
3* on over
1*
This is an extremely high MLB total, but that is precisely why the OVER has value. When the posted number is substantially higher than the season scoring averages of both teams and the customary totals attached to both starting pitchers, the instinctive reaction is to take the UNDER. Our database shows the better approach has been trusting the oddsmakers’ information: these inflated-total matchups have gone OVER approximately 56 percent of the time across more than 3,000 games.
The stronger combination angle incorporates how many baserunners the starting pitchers stranded in their previous outings. Under the qualifying circumstances present here, the OVER is 571-346—an exceptional 62.9 percent—with an 18.3 percent return on investment. That system receives support from the actual matchup rather than operating in isolation.
Sutter Health Park has played as one of baseball’s most offense-enhancing environments, with Baseball Reference listing a 2026 one-year park factor of 120 for batting and 122 for pitching, where anything above 100 favors hitters. The Athletics have allowed 622 runs, and their home park magnifies the danger presented by an already vulnerable pitching staff. (Baseball Reference)
Oakland starter Gage Jump brings considerable volatility. Although he shut down Boston in his most recent appearance, he allowed 21 runs across his previous five starts, including outings of six runs against Arizona, six against Miami and five against Los Angeles. His home ERA is 6.35 with a 1.66 WHIP, according to the supplied game data. Detroit starter Keider Montero also enters off a shaky performance in which Baltimore collected nine hits and scored six runs during his 4⅓ innings.
The bullpens provide another clear path to twelve runs. Oakland’s relief corps ranks near the bottom of the majors, with a 5.40 ERA over the last seven days and a No. 27 bullpen rating. (InsidethePen) The supplied numbers are even worse over the last three games: an 8.14 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 29 hits and 19 runs allowed in 21 innings. Detroit’s bullpen has simultaneously posted a 7.24 ERA over its last three contests.
These offenses have already exploited those weaknesses. Detroit has scored 21 runs in the first two games of this series, while the teams combined for 14 runs Saturday after producing 14 on Friday. The Tigers are averaging 6.8 runs over their last five games, and Saturday’s 8-6 result included three Detroit home runs and a late Athletics rally. (StatMuse)
The high number is not a reason to retreat; it is the foundation of the wager. We have a proven inflated-total system, the powerful 571-346 stranded-runner combination, a highly favorable hitting environment, two vulnerable bullpens and a series that has already produced 28 runs in two games.
The play is TIGERS–ATHLETICS OVER 11
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