Free Sports Picks Today: MLB, WNBA, NFL Preseason & Tennis Betting Picks for August 10, 2026
Looking for free sports picks, MLB predictions, WNBA picks, NFL preseason betting picks, baseball totals, moneyline picks and expert sports betting analysis for Monday, August 10, 2026? Picks Depot features free selections from professional sports handicappers covering today’s betting board. Below are today’s free expert sports picks, with each selection credited to the handicapper who released it […]
Looking for free sports picks, MLB predictions, WNBA picks, NFL preseason betting picks, baseball totals, moneyline picks and expert sports betting analysis for Monday, August 10, 2026? Picks Depot features free selections from professional sports handicappers covering today’s betting board.
Below are today’s free expert sports picks, with each selection credited to the handicapper who released it and the supporting analysis behind the play.
For bettors looking for the highest-rated premium picks from top-ranked handicappers in their strongest sports, visit Picks Depot Premium Picks.
For new free sports picks and betting predictions every day, bookmark the Picks Depot Free Picks page.
MLB Free Pick: Mets vs. Braves OVER 8
Handicapper: Calvin King
Pick: Mets-Braves OVER 8 (-115)
Calvin King’s free MLB selection is OVER 8 in Monday night’s New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves matchup.
This National League East matchup offers an opportunity for the offenses to push the game beyond the posted total. With a number of 8, bettors also have some protection if the teams combine for exactly eight runs.
Calvin King’s Free Pick: Mets-Braves OVER 8 (-115)
MLB Free Pick: Rockies vs. Diamondbacks UNDER 9
Handicapper: Brody Vaughn
Pick: Rockies-Diamondbacks UNDER 9 (-118)
Brody Vaughn goes to the MLB totals market for Monday’s Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks matchup.
His free selection is a 1-star play on UNDER 9, looking for pitching and run prevention to keep the game below the posted total.
Brody Vaughn’s Free Pick: Rockies-Diamondbacks UNDER 9 (-118)
MLB Free Pick: Rockies vs. Diamondbacks UNDER 9
Handicapper: Dustin Hawkins
Pick: Rockies-Diamondbacks UNDER 9 (-118)
Dustin Hawkins also targets the total in Monday night’s Rockies-Diamondbacks matchup.
Hawkins makes this a 1 Dimer selection on UNDER 9, expecting the game to produce fewer than nine combined runs.
Dustin Hawkins’ Free Pick: Rockies-Diamondbacks UNDER 9 (-118)
MLB Free Pick: Rockies vs. Diamondbacks UNDER 9
Handicapper: Totals Guru
Pick: Rockies-Diamondbacks UNDER 9 (-118)
Totals Guru makes the Colorado-Arizona matchup his free Total Annihilator selection for Monday.
The play is UNDER 9, adding another professional handicapper to the group expecting a lower-scoring game between the Rockies and Diamondbacks.
Totals Guru Free Pick: Rockies-Diamondbacks UNDER 9 (-118)
WNBA Free Pick: Chicago Sky -1.5 vs. Seattle Storm
Handicapper: Matt Sullivan
Pick: Chicago Sky -1.5 (-105)
Matt Sullivan’s Monday WNBA free pick backs the Chicago Sky -1.5 against the Seattle Storm.
With such a short point spread, Sullivan is essentially asking Chicago to win the game while covering the small number.
Matt Sullivan’s Free WNBA Pick: Chicago Sky -1.5 (-105)
MLB Free Pick: Houston Astros -160 vs. San Francisco Giants
Handicapper: Ricky Tran
Pick: Houston Astros -160
Ricky Tran’s Monday MLB free pick backs the Houston Astros against the San Francisco Giants.
Tran emphasizes that his selections are never based on one isolated trend. His handicapping process requires multiple factors to align before a game qualifies, although he highlights the angle he considers most significant in the published analysis.
Recent form is part of the case for Houston. The Astros enter the matchup 6-4 over their last 10 games, while the Giants are just 3-7 over their last 10.
San Francisco starter Blade Tidwell has also struggled to produce victories, entering this matchup 0-4 over his last four starts.
Between Houston’s superior recent team form and Tidwell’s recent results, Tran believes the value rests with the road favorite.
Ricky Tran’s Free Pick: Astros -160
MLB Free Pick: Baltimore Orioles -112 vs. Minnesota Twins
Handicapper: Sal Michaels
Pick: Baltimore Orioles -112
Sal Michaels backs Baltimore in Monday’s Orioles-Twins matchup.
The Orioles are laying only a modest moneyline price, making this essentially a straight-up call on which team wins the game.
Sal Michaels’ Free MLB Pick: Orioles -112
MLB Free Pick: Boston Red Sox -165 vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Handicapper: Nick Parsons
Pick: Boston Red Sox -165
Nick Parsons backs the Boston Red Sox in the opener of their four-game American League East series against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Boston recently saw its nine-game winning streak snapped against Oakland and then lost again Sunday. Parsons believes the Red Sox may have been looking ahead to this important divisional series.
Toronto returns home following a successful but demanding 4-3 road trip. The Blue Jays also enter after an extra-inning 7-6 loss in Philadelphia, creating a potential letdown situation.
The venue has not necessarily provided Toronto with a major advantage. Boston enters with an excellent 35-22 road record, while Toronto is only 28-31 at home.
Parsons also gives Boston the starting-pitching advantage with Sonny Gray matched against Jameson Taillon.
The combination of Boston’s road success, Toronto’s difficult travel and extra-inning situation, and the starting-pitching matchup puts Parsons on the Red Sox.
Nick Parsons’ Free Pick: Boston Red Sox -165
WNBA Free Pick: Toronto Tempo +15 vs. Atlanta Dream
Handicapper: William Burns
Pick: Toronto Tempo +15 (-110)
William Burns takes the points with the Toronto Tempo +15 against the Atlanta Dream.
Burns expects Atlanta to win the game outright but believes the point spread has become too large considering the Dream’s current form.
Toronto enters trying to end an eight-game losing streak. While the Tempo have struggled to win, Burns sees enough fight from the underdog to keep the margin comfortably inside the 15-point spread.
His projected final score is:
Atlanta Dream 102, Toronto Tempo 94
That eight-point projected margin provides substantial room relative to the posted spread.
William Burns’ Free WNBA Pick: Toronto Tempo +15 (-110)
MLB Free Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +134 vs. Boston Red Sox
Handicapper: Joseph D’Amico
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +134
Joseph D’Amico goes against the favorite and backs the Toronto Blue Jays as a home underdog against Boston.
There is no disputing Boston’s recent surge. The Red Sox have been among baseball’s hottest teams for more than a month and climbed from last place into third in the American League East. They also enter with an impressive 35-22 road record.
D’Amico, however, believes that success has contributed to Boston becoming overvalued in this particular matchup.
Toronto is only 56-63 but has begun showing signs of improvement, winning six of its last 10 games.
The starting-pitcher matchup appears to favor Boston on the surface, but D’Amico sees reasons to look deeper.
Sonny Gray is 4-5 in 17 career appearances, including 16 starts, against Toronto. More importantly, he has struggled against the Blue Jays this season, going winless in two starts with a 6.00 ERA.
Jameson Taillon has enjoyed much better career results against Boston. In eight lifetime starts against the Red Sox, Taillon is 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA.
Toronto has also performed well in the head-to-head series, winning six of the first eight meetings this season and seven of the last 10 meetings going back to last year.
Those matchup factors combined with an attractive home-underdog price put D’Amico on Toronto.
Joseph D’Amico’s Free Pick: Blue Jays +134
MLB Free Pick: Minnesota Twins +109 vs. Baltimore Orioles
Handicapper: Bobby Conn
Pick: Minnesota Twins +109
Bobby Conn takes the Minnesota Twins as a small home underdog against the Baltimore Orioles.
At plus money, Minnesota only needs to win the game outright for the wager to cash.
Bobby Conn’s Free MLB Pick: Twins +109
MLB Free Pick: San Diego Padres +100 vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Handicapper: Oliver Smith
Pick: San Diego Padres +100
Oliver Smith backs the San Diego Padres against Milwaukee in Monday night’s National League matchup.
Smith makes San Diego a 3-star free selection, taking the Padres at essentially even money.
Oliver Smith’s Free MLB Pick: Padres +100
MLB Free Pick: Minnesota Twins +109 vs. Baltimore Orioles
Handicapper: Hunter Price
Pick: Minnesota Twins +109
Hunter Price also sees betting value on the Minnesota side of Monday’s Orioles-Twins matchup.
His 1-star free MLB pick takes the Twins as a small home underdog.
Hunter Price’s Free Pick: Minnesota Twins +109
MLB Free Pick: Royals vs. Dodgers UNDER 7.5
Handicapper: Ray Monohan
Pick: Royals-Dodgers UNDER 7.5 (-120)
Ray Monohan targets a low-scoring game between Kansas City and Los Angeles.
The foundation of Monohan’s handicap is the starting pitching.
Tarik Skubal makes his second start for the Dodgers since the trade deadline and faces a Kansas City club he knows well from his previous American League experience.
Kansas City counters with Noah Cameron, who enters in excellent form. Cameron owns a microscopic 0.39 ERA over his last three appearances.
Monohan expects both starters to have success, creating the potential for quick innings and limited scoring opportunities.
His free plays are intended as smaller-bankroll selections, and the Monday recommendation is a strong lean toward the lower-scoring side of the total.
Ray Monohan’s Free MLB Pick: Royals-Dodgers UNDER 7.5 (-120)
Monohan also enters Monday off a winning Sunday and reports a 372-313, 54% run with +2592 units since mid-December.
MLB Free Pick: Baltimore Orioles -112 vs. Minnesota Twins
Handicapper: Jack Jones
Pick: Baltimore Orioles -112
Jack Jones backs Baltimore after the Orioles’ offense exploded for 10 runs against the Texas Rangers on Sunday.
Jones expects that offense to remain productive against former Orioles pitcher Dean Kremer, who was traded to Minnesota before the deadline.
Kremer has struggled badly, going 1-4 with a 5.93 ERA in eight starts. He has surrendered 27 earned runs and 12 home runs in 41 innings.
Minnesota’s bullpen adds another concern. The Twins’ relief corps owns a 4.79 ERA for the season and 5.10 ERA at home.
Baltimore starter Trevor Rogers, meanwhile, enters in outstanding form.
Rogers is 4-0 with a 1.99 ERA over his last eight starts, allowing only 11 earned runs and two home runs across 49 2/3 innings.
He has allowed two earned runs or fewer while completing at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts.
Rogers also dominated Minnesota in his only previous career start against the Twins this season, throwing seven shutout innings.
The starting-pitching advantage, bullpen comparison and Baltimore’s offensive momentum put Jones on the Orioles.
Jack Jones’ Free MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles -112
Jones also brings a substantial documented handicapping résumé into the selection. He is listed as the No. 2 ranked overall handicapper all-time and reports a 7069-6181 run over his last 3,255 days on premium selections, producing $303,530 in profits for bettors wagering $1,000 per game.
His MLB résumé includes six Top-10 finishes, including No. 4 in 2024, No. 8 in 2023, No. 5 in 2019, No. 6 in 2014, No. 6 in 2010 and No. 4 in 2009.
MLB Free Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Handicapper: Jeff Alexander
Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
Jeff Alexander attacks Monday’s Boston-Toronto matchup through the runline rather than laying the higher Red Sox moneyline price.
His 1-star free MLB pick backs Boston to win by at least two runs, with the +1.5-run requirement offering plus-money potential.
Jeff Alexander’s Free Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
MLB Free Pick: Rays vs. Athletics OVER 10
Handicapper: Dave Price
Pick: Rays-Athletics OVER 10 (+100)
Dave Price sees a strong offensive environment for Monday’s Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics matchup in Sacramento.
The first component is the ballpark. Sutter Health Park has played as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in Major League Baseball, trailing only Coors Field according to Price’s analysis.
Weather conditions also favor offense, with temperatures approaching 90 degrees and light winds blowing out.
Then comes the pitching.
Freddy Peralta is 2-5 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 10 road starts this season.
Jacob Lopez is 5-4 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.61 WHIP overall, while his home numbers are even more concerning: 0-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in seven home starts.
A hitter-friendly venue, warm weather and two vulnerable pitching profiles make the OVER the preferred side.
Dave Price’s Free MLB Pick: Rays-Athletics OVER 10 (+100)
Price is also a four-time Top-5 MLB handicapper and reports a 2955-2661 MLB record since June 8, 2011. His recent baseball résumé includes a 224-149 MLB 7-star run and a 404-343 MLB run since last season.
MLB Free Pick: Orioles vs. Twins OVER 8.5
Handicapper: John Martin
Pick: Orioles-Twins OVER 8.5 (-105)
John Martin expects runs when Baltimore visits Minnesota.
The Twins have produced a 66-51-2 OVER record this season, while Baltimore has also leaned toward higher-scoring games.
Minnesota is averaging 4.7 runs per game while allowing 4.9, and Baltimore averages 4.5 runs while surrendering 4.8. Those combined offensive and defensive averages create a statistical profile conducive to an OVER.
Starting pitching provides another reason.
Minnesota starter Dean Kremer is 1-4 with a 5.93 ERA in eight starts, surrendering 27 earned runs and an alarming 12 home runs in 41 innings.
Baltimore’s Trevor Rogers is 7-7 with a 4.20 ERA in 21 starts according to Martin’s analysis.
Martin believes the matchup provides enough offensive opportunities for the teams to exceed 8.5 runs.
John Martin’s Free MLB Pick: Orioles-Twins OVER 8.5 (-105)
Martin enters Monday following a 6-0 Saturday and 3-1 Sunday, producing a 9-1 run over two days.
MLB Free Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -155 vs. Athletics
Handicapper: Rocky Atkinson
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -155
Rocky Atkinson, aka Rocketman Sports, backs Tampa Bay against the Athletics.
The season-long team records show a substantial difference. Tampa Bay enters 71-46, compared with Oakland’s 47-71 record.
The Rays are also:
- 52-29 against American League opponents
- 22-11 against left-handed starters
- 45-24 in night games
- 6-0 over the previous week
Oakland has struggled extensively, including a 21-36 home record, a 15-36 record over the previous two months, and a 7-25 record in the second half.
Starting pitcher Jacob Lopez has compounded Oakland’s problems at home, where he is 0-3 with a 6.61 ERA.
The combination of Tampa Bay’s superior season record, success against left-handers and Oakland’s extended slump puts Atkinson on the Rays.
Rocky Atkinson’s Free MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -155
Atkinson enters off another winning MLB selection with Washington and reports an 83% MLB run, along with 71% in WNBA selections and 67% in CFL picks this season.
MLB Free Pick: Los Angeles Angels +105 vs. Texas Rangers
Handicapper: Timothy Black
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +105
Timothy Black makes the Angels his 1-star Best Bet for Monday’s matchup against Texas.
The Angels are available as a small home underdog, meaning the selection cashes with an outright Los Angeles victory.
No additional game analysis was provided with the free selection.
Timothy Black’s Free MLB Pick: Angels +105
MLB Free Pick: Rangers vs. Angels UNDER 8.5
Handicapper: Steve Janus
Pick: Rangers-Angels UNDER 8.5 (-105)
Steve Janus attacks Monday’s Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels matchup through the total.
His 1-star Free Sharp Play calls for the teams to stay below 8.5 combined runs.
Steve Janus’ Free MLB Pick: Rangers-Angels UNDER 8.5 (-105)
MLB Free Pick: Red Sox vs. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5
Handicapper: R&R Totals
Pick: Red Sox-Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 (-120)
R&R Totals specializes in attacking totals markets and goes UNDER in Monday’s Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays game.
The official free MLB over-under selection is:
Boston-Toronto UNDER 8.5
R&R Totals reports an extensive 1271-1088 MLB totals record, a 54% winning rate across more than 2,500 baseball selections.
R&R Totals Free MLB Pick: Red Sox-Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 (-120)
MLB Free Pick: San Francisco Giants +138 vs. Houston Astros
Handicapper: Brandon Lee
Pick: San Francisco Giants +138
Brandon Lee looks to the underdog market Monday night, backing the San Francisco Giants at plus money against Houston.
The Giants do not need to cover a runline. An outright San Francisco victory cashes the wager while returning a sizable underdog price.
Brandon Lee’s Free MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants +138
NFL Preseason Free Pick: Packers vs. Steelers UNDER 37.5
Handicapper: Alex Smart
Pick: Green Bay Packers-Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 37.5 (-110)
Alex Smart’s free NFL preseason pick for Thursday night targets the UNDER 37.5 between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers.
The total falls directly into a range that has historically been important in preseason betting.
According to Smart’s analysis, NFL preseason closing totals of 37 or higher have gone UNDER 56.4% of the time since 2010, covering a sample of more than 900 games.
Since 2014, the UNDER rate on totals of 37 or higher improves to 60.7%.
The modern preseason environment is also important. Only 9.8% of preseason pass attempts last year came from quarterbacks who ultimately started in Week 1, a dramatic decline from the 30%-plus range seen roughly a decade earlier.
That means preseason games are increasingly controlled by backup quarterbacks, second- and third-team offenses and conservative play-calling.
Pittsburgh adds a powerful team-specific trend. According to Smart, the Steelers went UNDER in 67.4% of their home preseason games from 2002 through 2025, producing a 14-29-2 over-under record.
Green Bay has not produced an UNDER trend quite that extreme, but its preseason approach has also generally avoided the type of wide-open offensive football needed to easily clear inflated totals.
The outdoor night environment in western Pennsylvania could further encourage conservative offensive football.
There is additional intrigue surrounding the Rodgers-McCarthy reunion, and the veteran quarterback could see 30 or 40 snaps against his former organization. Even with increased veteran participation, however, most of the game will still belong to second- and third-team units developing timing and communication.
Smart sees the league-wide totals history, Pittsburgh’s home preseason tendencies and reduced starter participation all pointing in the same direction.
Alex Smart’s Free NFL Preseason Pick: Packers-Steelers UNDER 37.5 (-110)
MLB Free Pick: San Francisco Giants +142 vs. Houston Astros
Handicapper: Sean Murphy
Pick: San Francisco Giants +142
Sean Murphy believes bettors could be tempted to chase Houston after the Astros dropped consecutive games in San Diego.
Instead, Murphy believes Houston is being asked to lay too high a price given the starting-pitching matchup.
The Astros send Hayden Wesneski to the mound against San Francisco’s Blade Tidwell.
Murphy does not have tremendous confidence in either starter, which is precisely why he questions Houston being installed as such a substantial favorite.
San Francisco also enters after losing both weekend games against Detroit. Despite an overall frustrating stretch, the Giants have won the series opener in each of their previous two series before dropping the remaining games.
Murphy sees the possibility of that pattern continuing.
Houston also travels into this matchup after playing the Sunday night game, creating another situational element favoring the underdog.
Sean Murphy’s Free MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants +142
MLB Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -115 vs. San Diego Padres
Handicapper: AAA Sports
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -115
AAA Sports backs the Milwaukee Brewers against San Diego for several reasons.
Milwaukee starts Logan Henderson, who enters 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA in 10 starts.
The Brewers also own the best overall record in baseball at 74-44 and enter in strong current form after winning five of their last six games.
San Diego, meanwhile, sits just outside the playoff picture, one game behind Philadelphia according to AAA Sports’ analysis.
The Padres counter with Casey Mize, who was hit hard in his San Diego debut against Arizona.
The superior overall team record, Henderson’s excellent season and Milwaukee’s current form make the Brewers the selection.
AAA Sports Free MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -115
MLB Free Pick: San Francisco Giants +137 vs. Houston Astros
Handicapper: Mike Williams
Pick: San Francisco Giants +137
Mike Williams joins the handicappers backing San Francisco as a substantial underdog against Houston.
His 1-star free MLB selection is on the Giants at +137.
Mike Williams’ Free Pick: San Francisco Giants +137
MLB Free Pick: Brewers vs. Padres UNDER 7.5
Handicapper: Mike Lundin
Pick: Brewers-Padres UNDER 7.5 (-120)
Mike Lundin expects pitching to control Monday’s Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres matchup.
San Diego right-hander Casey Mize enters 4-7 with a 3.40 ERA, while Milwaukee rookie Logan Henderson is 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA through 10 starts.
Mize has previous experience against Milwaukee, posting a 1-1 record and 3.18 ERA in two career starts against the Brewers.
Henderson enters after another strong performance. He earned a 4-2 victory over Pittsburgh last Tuesday, striking out eight batters over six innings while allowing only four hits and two runs.
It will be Henderson’s first career appearance against San Diego, giving Padres hitters their first extended look at his arsenal.
Team trends also support a lower-scoring matchup.
Milwaukee is 1-8-1 to the UNDER over its last 10 games and an impressive 21-11 to the UNDER as a road favorite this season.
The starting-pitching matchup and Milwaukee’s recent totals profile make UNDER 7.5 Lundin’s preferred wager.
Mike Lundin’s Free MLB Pick: Brewers-Padres UNDER 7.5 (-120)
Lundin also reports a 62-40, 61% MLB runline run dating to March 27, 2025, producing +$21,100 based on $1,000 wagers.
Tennis Free Pick: Luciano Darderi +3 vs. Brandon Nakashima
Handicapper: Andrew Gold
Pick: Luciano Darderi +3 (-105)
Andrew Gold’s free tennis betting pick backs Luciano Darderi +3 games against Brandon Nakashima.
Gold labels the selection his 1% Gold Rush play, giving Darderi the benefit of the three-game handicap.
Andrew Gold’s Free Tennis Pick: Luciano Darderi +3 (-105)
MLB Free Pick: Mets vs. Braves UNDER 8.5
Handicapper: Doug Upstone
Pick: New York Mets-Atlanta Braves UNDER 8.5 (-110)
Doug Upstone targets the UNDER in Monday night’s National League East matchup between the Mets and Braves.
New York enters after crushing Pittsburgh 11-1 in Sunday’s series rubber match. The Mets are 5-1 on their current nine-game road trip.
Atlanta, meanwhile, enters looking for its 10th consecutive home victory as the Braves open a three-game divisional series against New York.
The starting-pitching matchup is the centerpiece of Upstone’s handicap.
Atlanta sends Bryce Elder, who enters 8-6 with a 3.69 ERA, against New York right-hander Christian Scott, who is 3-3 with a 3.15 ERA.
Scott has demonstrated excellent strikeout ability with 92 strikeouts in only 74 1/3 innings.
Elder has also improved considerably, recording a 1.88 ERA over his last four outings.
Upstone identifies two additional UNDER trends.
Scott is 6-0 to the UNDER when facing a team with a winning record, while Elder is 10-1 to the UNDER in home starts after allowing two or fewer earned runs in his previous two outings.
Bullpen performance strengthens the pitching case. Atlanta brings the No. 6 bullpen, while the Mets’ relief staff has posted a 2.73 ERA over the last month.
Strong recent starting pitching, supporting bullpens and multiple totals trends point Upstone toward a lower-scoring game.
Doug Upstone’s Free MLB Pick: Mets-Braves UNDER 8.5 (-110)
Upstone brings a lengthy monitored handicapping résumé to the selection, including 30 documented titles and 114 Top-10 finishes during a 24-year career. He reports a 213-170 record on baseball selections and a 171-138 long-term mark across all picks.
MLB Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -109 vs. San Diego Padres
Handicapper: Kenny Walker
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -109
Kenny Walker backs Milwaukee in Monday night’s Brewers-Padres matchup.
The near-pick’em price makes this primarily a call for Milwaukee to win the game outright.
Kenny Walker’s Free MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -109
MLB Free Pick: Brewers vs. Padres UNDER 7.5
Handicapper: Cole Faxon
Pick: Brewers-Padres UNDER 7.5 (-123)
Cole Faxon joins the group of handicappers expecting pitching to dominate Monday’s Milwaukee-San Diego matchup.
His free MLB selection is UNDER 7.5.
Cole Faxon’s Free Pick: Brewers-Padres UNDER 7.5 (-123)
MLB Free Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Handicapper: ProSportsPicks
Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
ProSportsPicks makes Boston its data-driven 1-star runline selection against Toronto.
The ProSportsPicks methodology emphasizes advanced analytics, data integration, trend isolation and positive expected value while attempting to minimize subjective handicapping bias.
Its models identify value on the road team in Monday’s matchup.
Boston enters an exceptional 20-5 over its last 25 games.
The Red Sox also own the second-best road record in the American League and, according to the supplied analysis, possess the best bullpen in MLB.
Rather than lay the larger moneyline price, the free selection backs Boston on the runline, requiring a victory by at least two runs in exchange for plus money.
ProSportsPicks Free MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
MLB Free Pick: Texas Rangers -109 vs. Los Angeles Angels
Handicapper: Joe Duffy
Pick: Texas Rangers -109
Joe Duffy backs the Texas Rangers in Monday night’s matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, with Texas checking the boxes for a superior-road-team, short-price profile.
The proprietary database angle shows superior road teams priced as small favorites or underdogs producing a 10.9% ROI. More importantly, the underlying matchup provides several independent reasons Texas fits the concept rather than requiring the historical system to carry the handicap.
Why Texas Is the Side
The overall team-quality gap is substantial.
Texas enters 59-59, while Los Angeles is 45-73, the worst record in baseball. The Rangers remain actively involved in the American League playoff race, while the Angels are on pace to threaten the first 100-loss season in franchise history.
Run prevention also favors Texas.
The matchup data has the Rangers allowing 4.42 runs per game, compared with 4.87 for the Angels.
The offenses are almost identical, with Texas scoring 4.14 runs per game and Los Angeles averaging 4.10. That means the meaningful season-long separation between the clubs has occurred primarily on the pitching and run-prevention side.
Texas Rangers Bullpen Advantage
The bullpen is arguably the strongest statistical advantage in the matchup.
Texas relievers own a 3.36 ERA and 1.19 WHIP overall, with the available bullpen checking in at 3.07 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
The Angels’ relief corps owns a 4.43 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, while the available group sits at 3.73 and 1.28.
Recent bullpen form widens the difference dramatically.
Texas relievers have allowed only two earned runs in 16.2 innings over the listed three-game sample, good for a 1.08 ERA.
Angels relievers surrendered eight earned runs in 5.1 innings, producing a 13.50 ERA over their corresponding sample.
That late-inning disparity is particularly significant in a game priced close to a coin flip.
MacKenzie Gore vs. Reid Detmers
The starting-pitching matchup is closer than the teams’ overall records suggest.
Reid Detmers enters with a 4.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 150 strikeouts in 129 innings. His underlying season numbers are somewhat better than those of Texas starter MacKenzie Gore, who owns a 4.55 ERA.
There are, however, important counterweights.
Gore’s recent performance has stabilized considerably. Texas is 4-1 over his last five starts, during which Gore owns a 3.90 ERA. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of those five outings.
Detmers has not been able to translate respectable individual pitching into Angels victories. Los Angeles has lost each of his last six starts, dating from July 3 through August 5.
That stretch includes a July 9 matchup at Texas in which Detmers allowed five earned runs, seven hits and three home runs in four innings.
There is legitimate danger on the other side.
Detmers dominated Texas on May 24, striking out a career-high 14 batters while allowing only one hit across eight innings. Gore was also hammered for seven earned runs when he faced the Angels on July 8.
Those previous performances demonstrate why this should not be viewed as a pure starting-pitcher mismatch.
Rangers-Angels Situational Analysis
Texas enters after consecutive home-series victories against San Francisco and Baltimore and had won four straight games before Sunday’s loss.
The Rangers begin the road trip holding a wild-card position, giving these late-season games substantial postseason significance.
Los Angeles returns from a 2-4 road trip after getting blasted 12-3 by Miami on Sunday.
The Angels have already accumulated 73 losses and moved veterans at the trade deadline as the organization continues its rebuilding process.
Bottom Line: Texas Rangers
The starting pitchers make this game more competitive than the clubs’ records initially suggest, but Texas has the more complete betting case.
The Rangers possess the 14-game superior record, materially better overall run prevention, dramatically stronger season-long bullpen numbers, vastly better recent relief pitching and considerably greater postseason urgency.
That makes the 10.9% ROI superior-road-team angle particularly logical in this matchup. It identifies exactly the type of situation in which the stronger club is traveling but is not being asked to lay a prohibitive favorite price.
Joe Duffy’s Free MLB Pick: TEXAS RANGERS over Los Angeles Angels
Today’s Free Sports Betting Picks: Finding the Best Expert Plays
Monday’s free betting card includes MLB moneyline picks, baseball runline selections, MLB over-under predictions, WNBA picks, a tennis betting pick and an early NFL preseason total.
Several games also produced disagreement among professional handicappers, which can be useful information in itself. Boston-Toronto attracted plays on both teams, the Boston runline and the UNDER. Baltimore-Minnesota produced opinions on both sides as well as the OVER. Milwaukee-San Diego drew Brewers moneyline support, a Padres moneyline selection and multiple UNDER recommendations.
Rather than hiding those differences, Picks Depot credits each selection to the individual sports handicapper who released the pick, allowing bettors to evaluate the analysis, specialty, historical performance and reasoning behind each wager.
For the highest-rated premium sports picks from top-ranked handicappers in the sports where they have demonstrated their greatest success, see today’s Picks Depot Premium Picks.
And because betting boards change every day, bookmark Picks Depot Free Picks for updated free MLB picks, NFL picks, college football predictions, NBA picks, college basketball picks, NHL picks, WNBA picks, totals, moneylines, point spreads and expert sports betting analysis.
Check back daily for the latest free sports picks and expert betting predictions from Picks Depot.