The market continues to undervalue the Boston Bruins, repeatedly hanging plus-money lines despite their consistent profitability in this spot. Boston has been one of the most reliable underdogs in the league this season, cashing tickets at an impressive clip when getting points.

St. Louis has indeed shown signs of life recently, tightening up defensively and getting better goaltending, but the Bruins have proven time and again that they thrive in this exact role — well-coached, structurally sound, and dangerous on the counter. The odds still reflect name recognition and home ice more than current form.

Until the books stop offering us this gift, we keep taking it.

Play: Boston Bruins +126

No. 2 Michigan (8-0) enters as one of the hottest teams in the country, fresh off blowout wins including 102-72 over No. 20 Auburn, 101-61 over No. 11 Gonzaga, and 101-60 over Rutgers. The Wolverines rank No. 1 in KenPom, boast the nation's top defense, and are averaging a staggering 94.6 points per game while shooting over 52% from the field and dominating the glass (2nd nationally in rebounds per game).
Villanova (7-1) has quietly put together a seven game win streak after a narrow season opening loss to BYU, most recently claiming the Big 5 Classic with a 90-63 rout of Penn. The Wildcats sit around No. 35 in KenPom and bring a disciplined, ball sharing offense (83.0 PPG) with strong perimeter shooting (around 38% from three this season) and excellent half court execution.
The current spread sits at Michigan -15.5, which feels inflated given the matchup dynamics. Villanova's defense rarely fouls—one of the lowest opponent free-throw rates in the country—forcing teams to earn points in the half court rather than at the line. Michigan thrives on efficient scoring and transition, but against a patient, low mistake Wildcats team that moves the ball beautifully and shoots the three well, the Wolverines may face a grind it out game rather than another track meet.
KenPom projects around a 15-point Michigan win, but personal models see this staying closer. Michigan's recent dominance has come against overmatched or weaker defenses; regression feels inevitable against a proven program like Villanova on a big stage.
I'll acknowledge the hometown lean (yes, living near Villanova probably plays a small role), but the value here is clear: the road Cats have the tools to frustrate Michigan's rhythm and keep this within striking distance.
Pick: Villanova +15.5

Let's cash some tickets!

The line has shifted in New York's favor, and sharp money appears to be aligning with the public here, giving us excellent value on the Knicks at -3.5 (some books now at -4). Earlier in the season, backing the Knicks on the road was tricky, but Toronto has hit a clear slump at the wrong time.
Recent form tells the story: the Knicks are a strong 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games, while the Raptors have struggled to just 1-7 ATS over the same stretch. Toronto has dropped their last 3 straight up and 5 of their last 6 overall, including a three game home losing skid heading into this one.
Karl-Anthony Towns is listed as questionable with a calf issue, but reports suggest he's trending toward playing – even if he's limited, New York's depth and momentum should carry them. The Knicks have dominated Atlantic Division matchups this season and already own a head to head win over Toronto earlier in the year. Offensively, New York ranks among the league's best (top-5 scoring), and they're the superior defensive team as well.
In an In-Season Tournament setting, the Knicks look like one of the few Eastern squads truly capable of challenging powerhouses like OKC down the line. Expect them to take care of business on the road.
Play: Knicks -3.5

The Miami Heat and Orlando Magic just met on December 5th in a tightly contested game that finished 106-105 (total of 211 points)—well under the closing total around 241. That low scoring affair featured strong defensive performances on both sides, with neither team shooting particularly efficiently and plenty of physical, grind it out basketball.
Fast forward to tonight's NBA Cup quarterfinal rematch, and the total has opened significantly lower but still sits around 232.5 in many spots. The key question is: where are the extra ~20 points supposed to come from?

Orlando's leading scorer, Franz Wagner (23.4 PPG this season), is out after suffering a high left ankle sprain on Sunday against the Knicks. He played just 7 minutes in that game and has already been ruled out for this one, robbing the Magic of their most reliable shot creator and perimeter threat.
Both teams have been strong under plays lately: the Heat are 5-2 to the under in their last 7, while the Magic are 4-2 in their last 6.
This is a high stakes NBA Cup game with both squads highly motivated—expect maximum defensive intensity, physicality, and likely another sluggish offensive night rather than a track meet.
The market has already shaved points off the total as sharp money has come in on the under, and that movement looks spot on.

All signs point to another low scoring, defensive battle well beneath the number.
Play: Heat/Magic Under 232.5