#704 ASA PLAY ON South Dakota -7 over Southern Indiana, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - South Dakota is 1-2 on the season with their losses coming in OT vs Utah Tech and @ Creighton where they played well losing by 16 as a 26 point dog. The Coyotes have some continuity returning this year with 4 regulars (3 starters this year) that played key roles last season. Southern Indiana sits at 0=2 and has all transfers in their starting line up and only 1 player that played here last year in their top 8. It’s going to take some time them to figure out how to play together. These 2 faced off last season @ Southern Indiana and South Dakota was a 2.5 point road favorite in that one and lost outright. We were on SIU in that game as South Dakota was coming off an upset win @ Western Michigan just a few days earlier and the set up to take Southern was solid. We’re now getting the Coyotes at home, where they were 14-2 last season, laying only a few points more than they did on the road last season. The Screaming Eagles are 0-1 on the road this year and have been a terrible road team going 5-27 SU away from home since the start of the 2023 season. It’s early in the season but South Dakota has been the much better shooting team to date hitting almost 47% of their shots compared to 33% for Southern Indiana (344th nationally). The Screaming Eagles are also averaging less than 1.00 point per possession so far this season. Let’s take South Dakota at home on Wednesday night.

ASAwins NBA play on OVER 233 Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets, 7pm ET - The Bucks have been consistent on the offensive end of the court, ranking 10th in Offensive Efficiency (117.8) and averaging 119.6 points per game while playing at the 11th-fastest pace (101.5 possessions). Charlotte's defense has been leaky, ranking 26th in Defensive Efficiency (120.3) and allowing 121 points per game, with opponents exploiting their 26th-ranked opponent eFG% allowed (59.3%). Milwaukee's defense under Doc Rivers continues to be just mediocre. The Bucks aren’t much better than the Hornets defensively ranking 19th in Deff, allowing 117.1. Both teams shoot the ball extremely well with the Bucks ranking 2nd in eFG% shooting 58.8%, the Hornets rank 11th at 55.8%. Our math model is projecting 237 total points being scored in this one and we agree with the numbers.

#308 ASA PLAY ON Miami OH +4 over Toledo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Toledo has been a terrible road team this season with an 0-4 SU mark including 2 losses as double digit favorites. The Rockets have had a tendency to lose games outright when laying points. In fact, Toledo has lost 18 times outright as a favorite since 2021 and 12 of those losses have come as a favorite of a TD or more. They can’t be trusted laying points on the road as they are 3-14 ATS in that situation dating back to the start of the 2022 season. As you might expect, the Rockets road numbers are WAY off their home numbers. Take a look at this…Toledo averages 44.3 PPG at home and 14.8 PPG on the road. They average 512 YPG (on 7.9 YPP) at home and 334 YPG (4.6 YPP) on the road. And it’s not as if they’ve played a much tougher slate away from home compared to at home with 3 of their 4 road opponents currently have a losing record and the only one with a winning record (Western Michigan) is 5-4. Miami OH is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming vs UNLV (who is currently 7-2) in a game the Redhawks led by 14 points in the 4th quarter and blew it. They are 29-5 SU at home their last 34 games. At home Miami is averaging 36 PPG (just 16 PPG on the road) and 419 YPG at home (301 on the road). Nice value here with Miami coming off a tight 24-20 road loss @ Ohio while Toledo destroyed Northern Illinois at home. The Rockets have never beaten Miami Oh by more than 4 on the road and we don’t think they will here. The Redhawks are absolutely live to pull this upset at home.