#901/902 ASA PLAY ON Under 8 Runs (-110) – Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins, Thursday at 12:10 PM ET - Extra value here after the early line move from 7.5 to an 8 on this one.  Both these bullpens have been strong this season.  Also, the Reds are often struggling to score runs and we like this pitching match-up as well for an under.  Rhett Lowder has great stuff and is off to a fantastic start this season and now has a 1.30 ERA in his 8 career MLB starts.  He gets the start for the Reds here and will be opposed by Max Meyer for Miami.  The Marlins right-hander allowed 3 earned runs in the 1st inning of his first start this season and then went 9 innings without allowing a run until he allowed a 2-run homer with two outs in the 5th inning of his 2nd start.  Meyer was one out away from completing a 5-inning scoreless start against a potent Yankees lineup before a Bellinger 2-run homer changed that outcome.  Now Meyer faces a struggling Reds lineup.  Not including extra innings runs, Cincinnati has scored an average of only 2.8 runs per game in their first dozen games this season.  The Marlins have hit better than the Reds and yet still had been held to 4 or less runs in 6 of their first 8 home games this season prior to yesterday's 7-4 win.  In fact, in those 6 home games Miami scored an average of only 2.7 runs per game (not including extra innings runs).  Considering Miami is facing a hard-throwing pitcher with Lowder on the mound here and considering he is backed by a bullpen that has been very strong this season, we see the Marlins struggling for runs here.  This one shapes up to be a nice pitchers' battle all the way through as two solid bullpens also are involved.  Yesterday's game totaled 11 runs but only 1 earned run was scored in 9 and 1/3 innings of bullpen for the two teams combined.  Our computer math model projects a total of only 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. Bet the Under in this one.   

ASA NHL play on Buffalo -121 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 pm ET - Tonight’s a high-value spot for the Buffalo Sabres to pull off a statement home win over the Columbus Blue Jackets at KeyBank Center. The Sabres are rolling with momentum even though they are on the second night of a back-to-back. Buffalo delivered a strong 3rd period for a come from behind win over the Rangers in New York City on Wednesday night—exactly the kind of victory that gives a big momentum boost for a team heading home for a big home game the next night. As for the visitors here, the Blue Jackets have been in full desperation mode and their playoff hopes have begun to slip away under the pressure. Columbus is off a win over the Red Wings but this followed a 6-game losing streak that has really put a dent in their playoff hopes. Conversely, fresh off B2B wins and having won 3 straight home games also, Buffalo has the momentum and also plenty of motivation. They hold a 2-point lead over the Lightning and Canadiens for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. The revenge angle backs the home side too—the Sabres have lost both games with the Jackets this season but the home defeat was much earlier this season and came in OT. Time for some home revenge payback here and we get line value because the money line is being kept lower than it would be normally for this match-up. That's because the Sabres are playing without rest and we don't see Buffalo faltering here. The Sabres make it 4 straight home wins while Columbus, feeling the playoff race pressure, loses for the 7th time in their last 8 games.

UEFA Europa Conference League: #235001/235002 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 +120 in Rayo Vallecano vs AEK Athens, Thursday at 12:45 pm ET – Both teams got here via the same path in the prior round.  The key for each club was getting a big win in the 1st Leg and then stifling the opposition in the 2nd Leg.  The mindset for each team is that it worked well before and they want to do the same here. Rayo Vallecano won their 1st Leg 3-1 and AEK Athens won their 1st Leg 4-0.  So the emphasis here in the 1st Leg of this one is also likely to be attacking and looking to get a nice 1st Leg edge.  Rayo Vallecano has scored an average of 1.5 goals in their last 6 matches at home.  AEK Athens has scored an average of 2.1 goals in their last 10 matches overall.  We like the plus money here on the over 2.5 in this one as both clubs will be aggressive and attack-minded in looking to get that 1st Leg edge just as they did in the prior round.  That gets this one to at least a 2-1 final the way we see it playing out.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability range being a match totaling 3 to 4 goals here and we will take the Over in this one. 

ASA NBA play on NY Knicks -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 7:40 pm ET - The Celtics are going to rest Derrick White and Jaylen Brown on Thursday against the Knicks. Yes, the C’s are deep but we’re not sure they’re going to be able to beat the Knicks down 2 starters. The Knicks have a little more incentive to win here so they maintain the 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. Boston has been great on the road this season with a 26-14 SU record, but the Knicks have been fantastic at home with a 28-9 record and an average margin of victory of +10.4ppg. New York has a slightly better record in division games at 12-3 SU compared to the Celtics 10-5 SU mark. The home team has covered 5 of the last six meetings between these two rivals, 2 of three this season. New York nearly lost at home the other night to the Hawks and should play with a greater sense of urgency in this divisional showdown. The Celtics look like they are more concerned with health heading into the postseason. Lay it with New York.