FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR WEDNESDAY, 5/20:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Wednesday afternoon is with Over the Total in the Europa League championship match between Freiburg and Aston Villa being played on a neutral pitch at Besiktas Park in Istanbul, Turkey. SC Freiburg advanced to the finals with a 3-1 win at home against Sporting Braga on May 7th, which eked out a 4-3 aggregate score victory. The Black Forest have played three matches in a row across all competitions where at least four combined goals were scored. They have scored nine times and conceded seven goals during that span. Aston Villa reached the finals of the Europa League with their 4-0 victory at home against Nottingham Forest on May 7th, which resulted in a 4-1 aggregate score. The Villans have played three straight matches where four or more combined goals were scored. They have scored ten times during that stretch but conceded multiple goals in two of those matches. Five of the last seven Europa League finals matches saw both teams score. Play the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 15 of 24 (63%) Soccer Match of the Year run after DELIVERING their 25* FA Cup Match of the Year on Man City on Saturday! Now Frank furthers his 22 of 35 (63%) Soccer run with his 25* UEFA Europa League Match of the Year for the Freiburg-Aston Villa goal-line winner on Paramount+ at 3:00 PM ET! Frank DELIVERED his 25* UEFA Europa League Match of the Year last year on Tottenham in the finals — so DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Aston Villa (224209) minus the goal-line versus SC Freiburg (224210) in the finals of the Europa League. THE SITUATION: Aston Villa reached the finals of the Europa League with their 4-0 victory at home against Nottingham Forest on May 7th, which resulted in a 4-1 aggregate score. SC Freiburg advanced to the finals with a 3-1 win at home against Sporting Braga on May 7th, which eked out a 4-3 aggregate score victory. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Besiktas Park in Istanbul, Turkey.

REASONS TO TAKE ASTON VILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Villans should win this match in regulation time. They have generated better results in the English Premier League than Freiburg has in German Bundesliga which is not only considered of higher quality but is also more physical. It is not uncommon for players from top-flight leagues outside of England to struggle when transferring into the English Premier League to the size and strength required to succeed. The Bundesliga is known for its speed in a style of play that emphasizes the offensive attack — but even Bayern Munich struggles in European competition when it comes to containing their opponents (especially when playing on the road). Aston Villa is in fine form as they are unbeaten in their last three matches with two victories after their upset win at home against Liverpool by a 4-2 score last Friday. The deeper metrics confirm their superior play as they won the expected goals (xG) battle by a 1.84-1.72 margin. The victory moved the Villans ahead of the Reds into fourth place on the EPL table — and it locked their participation in the UEFA Champions League next season. They have cruised through this competition. They advanced from the league phase with a W7-D0-L1 record while conceding only six goals. In the Round of 16, they cruised by Lille from France’s Ligue 1 by a 3-0 aggregate score. They then dominated Bologna, representing Ligue 1 by a 7-1 aggregate score in the quarterfinals, before facing a fellow EPL club in Nottingham Forest in the semifinals. While Aston Villa was better at home in the EPL, they were competitive on the road in what is widely considered the most competitive professional soccer league in the world, with a W6-D6-L6 mark. The Villains’ 26 victories in European competition since the beginning of the 2023-24 season is the most in the world — and their 16 clean sheets in those competitions is second only to Arsenal in the world. Frankly, Freiburg was fortunate to reach the finals of this event after Braga got flagged for a red card just six minutes into the second leg, which gave the Black Forest an 11 versus 10 man advantage on the pitch for the majority of the match. But Braga still conceded 1.51 expected Goals Allowed and only won the xG battle by a 2.09-1.51 mark despite playing with an extra player for 84 minutes. They do come off a 4-1 victory at home against RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on Saturday — but they lost the xG battle to the Red Bulls by a 1.63-1.25 margin. In the league phase of this event, they were less impressive with a W5-D2-L1 mark. They have been at their best in the German top flight at home, where they enjoy a W9-D3-L3 mark. But on the road in the Bundesliga, Freiburg is just W4-D3-L10 with 18 goals scored by 35 goals conceded. In their last four matches across all competitions when playing away from home, they have lost all four matches while scoring only four goals and conceding 11 times. In the Bundesliga, they are only in seventh place with 47 points — and they are 12 points behind Bayer Leverkusen for sixth place, so there is a big divide in quality. Freiburg is considered a respectable mid-table German squad in the top flight — but they have never won a major title in club history. 

FINAL TAKE: The Villans are coached by the literal Europa League title whisperer in Unai Emery, who has previously overseen a Europa League title four times in previous stints with Villarreal and Sevilla — and he took Arsenal to this championship match as well. Not only is he a great tactician, but he feels very comfortable coaching this match — and that will only instill more confidence in his players who want to deliver their fans the first major silverware since 1996. 25* UEFA Europa League Match of the Year with the Aston Villa (224209) minus the goal-line versus SC Freiburg (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.